Asia shares rise on rate cut bets; RBA seen turning hawkish
2024.05.06 22:12
By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Asian shares made 15-month highs on Tuesday on renewed confidence of U.S. interest rate cuts, while traders waited on a policy meeting in Australia later in the day and had a close eye on a falling yen.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.3% in early trade. Hong Kong shares traded marginally lower, having ridden a wave of heavy buying from mainland investors to lift the more than 14% higher in a 10-day winning streak, its longest since 2018.
gained 1.3% and were steady after the cash index logged a 1% rise overnight. [.N]
The mood was underpinned by last week’s softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterating that the next move in rates will be lower.
“(Powell) said that he is confident policy is restrictive and that if progress on inflation stalled, the (Fed) would hold off on cutting, implying a high bar to hiking,” said Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle.
He also said, in a note to clients, that the U.S. hiring rate and other measures of employment growth intentions were soft and the weakest part of labour market data.
Treasuries, which rallied on Friday’s jobs figures, traded steady in New York overnight and 10-year yields held at 4.49% in Tokyo on Tuesday. Interest rates markets price at least one U.S. rate cut this year, in November.
Demand will be tested at a $58 billion three-year note auction on Tuesday, which is followed by $42 billion in 10-year sales on Wednesday and $25 billion of 30-year sales on Thursday.
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Expectations of falling rates weighed on the dollar, except against the yen as Japanese rates are not expected to move too far above zero this year, leaving a wide gap.
The dollar rose 0.6% on the yen on Monday and a further 0.2% to 154.17 yen on Tuesday, keeping markets on edge as to whether Japanese authorities may step in again. Traders estimate Japan spent almost $60 billion defending the yen last week.
RBA WATCH
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to leave rates on hold at its policy meeting later on Tuesday, but focus will be on whether the tone or outlook shifts to explicitly include the possibility of hikes, following an inflation surprise.
The Australian dollar was steady at $0.6637 in morning trade. Swaps market pricing implies a near even chance of a rate hike later this year in Australia.
“Markets are expecting a more hawkish tone … along with upgraded near term inflation forecasts, with some debate around whether the bank reinstates a tightening bias,” said Westpac’s head of foreign exchange strategy, Richard Franulovich.
Sterling, at $1.2564, and the euro at $1.0770, held small overnight gains against the dollar.
In commodity trade, oil was a tad firmer, with futures up 0.3% to $83.58 a barrel with a ceasefire deal in the Middle East proving elusive. Gold rose overnight and was steady at $2,325 an ounce on Tuesday.
Wheat, corn and soybean futures have surged to multi-month highs on worries about unfavourable weather in Russia – where it has been frosty and dry – and Brazil, where there are floods. [GRA/]
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Iron ore futures have rallied on clues that China’s Politburo is planning more support measures for the beleaguered property sector. Benchmark June iron ore on the Singapore Exchange (OTC:) has risen almost 25% in a month. [IRONORE/]
German factory orders are the highlight of the European calendar on Tuesday. Disney reports earnings.
Australia’s ANZ Bank posted a 7% profit drop and shares fell 2.3%, despite the announcement of a buyback.
