As Bulls Pile on to China Stocks Rally, One Fund Stays Cautious
2022.06.29 17:10
As Bulls Pile on to China Stocks Rally, One Fund Stays Cautious
Thornburg Investment Management Inc. isn’t in a rush to join a growing chorus of China bulls, as lingering uncertainties over Beijing’s Covid Zero policy and tech regulation warrant caution amid the frenzy.
We are “short-term humble about our expectations for China,” though bullish over the longer term, Josh Rubin, portfolio manager of Thornburg’s $1 billion emerging markets equity strategy fund, said in a Friday interview.
Rubin said he is underweight tech stocks, adding “we and general market participants do not have unique insight into the policy decision from the government.”
His comments suggest some market participants have yet to buy the China rally story, even as the latest rebound against a global selloff has spurred positive commentary from investors including JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Asset Management and stoked a fear-of-missing-out sentiment.
China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index is close to entering a bull market, having rallied more than 16% since an April trough. Loose monetary settings amid a wave of tightening and some easing of Covid restrictions in Beijing and Shanghai have been driving the outperformance, while major global indexes slid into bear markets.
One key risk that’s prevented Thornburg from broadening exposure to Chinese stocks is Beijing’s adherence to Covid Zero. The asset manager said it’s also not clear whether consumers can quickly recover their buying patterns as major cities emerge from lockdowns.
“To have a materially overweight position to China, we would need to have clarity that the reopening can be sustained, and that the economy will not continue to go through a stop-start-stop-start cycle,” he said.
In e-mailed comments on Tuesday, Rubin added that reduced quarantine for inbound travelers is a positive development, but doesn’t significantly alter his view as the fund wants to be prepared for unexpected scenarios.
Read: China Quarantine Cut Just First Step in Ending Global Isolation
Rubin’s portfolio allocated 30% of assets to China and Hong Kong stocks as of end-May. The fund has lost more than 15% in gross return this year through the end of last month, trailing the benchmark’s 12% drop.
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
