Arthur Hayes sees sub-$50K BTC price as Bitcoin risks ‘stark’ trend shift
2024.09.06 07:18
Bitcoin (BTC) set another monthly low on Sept. 8 as analysis warned of the dangers of losing $54,000.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Moving average “cloud” hangs over Bitcoin bulls
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed a fresh BTC price dip taking BTC/USD to $55,282 on Bitstamp during the Asia session.
Ahead of the week’s key United States unemployment data release, Bitcoin looked precarious as bulls failed to halt a slow bleed toward the six-month lows seen on Aug. 5.
For popular analyst Caleb Franzen, writing was now on the wall.
Uploading a chart of its 200-day simple (SMA) and exponential (EMA) moving average to X, Franzen suggested that BTC/USD was now on the cusp of a more significant downtrend.
The 200-day SMA and EMA sat at $63,840 and $59,462, respectively, at the time of writing, with the space in between forming a so-called “cloud.”
“If Bitcoin loses this green range and has a daily close below $54k (the low daily close on Aug. 5), I’ll concede that this is a formal rejection & new low on the 200-day MA cloud,” he commented.
“A rejection on the cloud is NOT a bullish characteristic & would represent a stark shift in trend.”
BTC/USD 1-day chart with 200SMA cloud. Source: Caleb Franzen/X
A further post on Sept. 5 nonetheless revealed a bullish divergence on Bitcoin’s relative strength indeed (RSI), which was trending up as price declined.
“Bitcoin in a short-term regression downtrend, but with a bullish RSI divergence that’s still intact,” Franzen wrote.
BTC/USD 2-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Caleb Franzen/X
Bitcoin trader warns sellers in control
Other popular trading figures meanwhile joined the sense of unease over where BTC price action could head next.
Related: Bitcoin transactions dive 30% in 6 months amid BTC price ‘disinterest’
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, even publicly announced a short position, claiming to be expecting sub-$50,000 levels over the weekend.
Popular trader Peter Brandt offered a similar angle, albeit without strict timing.
Identifying a megaphone pattern emerging on the weekly chart, Brandt called for a “massive thrust” into price discovery amid months of sellers having the upper hand.
“A test of the lower boundary would be to 46,000 or so,” he noted alongside an explanatory chart.
“A massive thrust into new ATHs is required to get this bull market back on track. Selling is stronger than buying in this pattern.”
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Peter Brandt/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
