Argentina vote headed for runoff between ruling Peronist and radical Milei
2023.10.23 04:25
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© Reuters. Argentina’s presidential candidate Sergio Massa addresses supporters as he reacts to the results of the presidential election, in Buenos Aires, Argentina October 22, 2023. REUTERS/Mariana Nedelcu
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LONDON (Reuters) – A stronger-than-expected showing by Argentina’s ruling Peronist coalition at a general election on Sunday has set the stage for a run-off vote on Nov. 19 between Economy Minister Sergio Massa and far-right radical Javier Milei.
Below are reactions from analysts to the results:
SERGIO ARMELLA, GOLDMAN SACHS, NEW YORK
“Investors’ attention will turn its focus to two points. First, any announcements by the two candidates advancing to the second round. When it comes to Mr. Massa, given his capacity as Finance Minister and candidates, policy announcements will be key.”
“Policy missteps are something that Argentina cannot afford at this juncture. Inflation is tracking at 138% and accelerating, currency and financial pressures are building up, economic activity is contracting, the fiscal deficit is widening, international reserves are at critically low levels, and net international reserves are negative. For Mr. Milei, any announcement of cabinet positions in an eventual government, for example the finance minister, will be key.”
DIEGO W. PEREIRA, JPMORGAN, NEW YORK
“Despite wider macro-imbalances, the recent general election results have shown that neither the deteriorating macro nor corruption scandals appear as decisive drivers to gauge the performance of the incumbent. More relevant will be how the transference of votes will operate between the different forces, especially the migration of (Patricia) Bullrich’s and (Juan) Schiaretti’s support.”
“Proving competitive going into the runoff, in the weeks through Sunday November 19th, the government is expected to continue to pull rabbits out of a hat in an attempt to muddle-through and avoid a disordered devaluation.”
MARIANO MACHADO, PRINCIPAL AMERICAS ANALYST, VERISK MAPLECROFT, MALAGA
“It is true that in the first round, societal mood shied away from radical change; but in the second round, pro-change voters may shift to Milei to oust Kirchnerism from power.”
“Economically, the next weeks will be crucial. The combination of a libertarian candidate pushing for dollarisation, with minister Massa hiking the money-printing machine to produce a political miracle for ‘candidate’ Massa could finally push macroeconomic variables off the cliff’s edge.”
