Analysis-Ukraine’s Zelenskiy heads to US with ‘victory plan’ at perilous moment
2024.09.23 02:08
By Tom Balmforth
KYIV (Reuters) – President Volodymyr Zelenskiy travels to the United States to set out a “victory plan” to his closest ally this week, in an urgent attempt to influence White House policy on Ukraine’s war with Russia no matter who wins the U.S. elections in November.
The Ukrainian leader has said he wants to present the plan to President Joe Biden and his two potential successors, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, during the trip, which will see Zelenskiy addressing the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday.
Zelenskiy has said that if the plan is backed by the West, it will have a broad impact on Moscow, including a psychological one that could help compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war diplomatically.
“The Victory Plan envisages quick and concrete steps by our strategic partners – from now until the end of December,” Zelenskiy told reporters on Friday.
He added that the plan would act as a “bridge” to a second Ukraine-led summit on peace that Kyiv wants to hold and invite Russia to later this year.
There is no alternative to peace, Zelenskiy has said, “no freezing of the war or any other manipulations that would simply postpone Russian aggression to another stage”.
Yet the two sides remain far apart.
Zelenskiy wants Ukraine inside NATO and the European Union and Russia driven from all Ukrainian territory, though he says the latter aim can be achieved diplomatically. Putin says peace talks can only begin if Kyiv abandons swathes of eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia and drops its NATO membership plan.
Zelenskiy’s trip comes at a perilous juncture for Ukraine. A Trump victory in the Nov. 5 presidential election could prompt a reset of Washington’s policy on Ukraine, which relies heavily on U.S. military and financial support.
During a TV debate, Trump refused to say if he wanted Ukraine to defeat Russia and said he would try to end the war before taking office if he wins. Harris accused Trump of seeking Kyiv’s swift and unconditional capitulation.
As the election nears, Kyiv has put on a show of strength, rapidly seizing land in a high-risk Aug. 6 incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, touting new weapons including a “drone missile” and ballistic weapon and launching major drone strikes.
One attack caused a massive blast at an ammo dump in Russia’s Tver region last Wednesday.
Russia has ramped up drone and missile attacks, taken receipt of Iranian ballistic missiles, according to the West, ordered an increase in the size of its army, moved to change its nuclear doctrine and stepped up its eastern offensive.
‘BIDEN’S DECISION’
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has said Biden is eager to discuss Zelenskiy’s “comprehensive strategy for success in this war” against Russia.
Zelenskiy said his plan consists of a small number of points and that “all these points depend on Biden’s decision, not Putin’s”.
On Friday, the leader said the steps involved establishing Ukraine’s place in the world’s “security architecture”, battlefield decisions including the Kursk operation, bolstering Ukraine’s armoury and supporting the economy.
Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military analyst, said Zelenskiy might press for longer-term assurances of aid into 2025 and seek some kind of declaration of post-Biden continuity in support.
“This will be a very important moment. Perhaps in some ways, in a political and military-political sense, it will be a pivotal moment,” he said.
Zelenskiy is almost certain to repeat his call on Biden to authorise long-range strikes into Russia, a move Moscow has said would make NATO members direct participants in the war and elicit a response.
Ukraine wants to strike military installations up to 300 km (186 miles) inside Russia, such as airfields that host attack helicopters and warplanes used to fire glide bombs. Washington has said it does not see the easing of those restrictions as a battlefield game-changer.
Russia, which occupies 18% of Ukrainian territory, has been on the offensive since last October and in August chalked up its fastest sustained recent month of advances.
Ukraine’s toehold in Russia’s Kursk region could serve as a bargaining chip at talks or as an insurance policy against any outside push to freeze the war along current lines. But Kyiv would have to hold the territory amid serious manpower challenges against a much larger foe.
Meanwhile, Russia has been making progress towards the transport hub of Pokrovsk. Its capture could wreak havoc with Ukrainian logistics and open up new lines of attack.
Kovalenko said Russia likely wanted to capture Pokrovsk by the year-end.
“That would allow them… to strengthen pressure on the information front to catalyse thoughts of peace negotiations, naturally on their terms,” he said.
CHALLENGES
Ukraine hopes to advance a blueprint for peace at a second international summit later this year and says Russia will be invited at the request of other participants. The first one in Switzerland pointedly shunned Moscow in June and was skipped by China and chunks of the Global South.
Zelenskiy says his summit initiative is the only viable peace format and this month slammed as “destructive” a Chinese-Brazilian proposal that calls for “de-escalating the situation” and the resumption of direct dialogue without requiring Russia to pull back.
Ukraine faces its toughest winter of the 2-1/2 year war yet after Russian strikes damaged a huge chunk of energy producing capacity.
The government also faces mounting economic challenges, and plans its first wartime tax hikes to cover a funding gap of about $12.2 billion for its army this year.
Opinion polls paint a mixed picture.
Some 32% of Ukrainians were open, as of May 2024, to certain territorial concessions to end the war, up from 10% in May 2022, said Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of Kyiv-based pollster KIIS. But most of them envisioned an arrangement that would postpone the liberation of territory rather than abandon it for good, he added.
The key demand for any peace deal is the need for firm security guarantees such as NATO membership, he said.
“Despite negative trends, Ukrainians are still optimistic enough and believe for a better future – and hope this future will be in the European Union and with finally adequate security guarantees.”
