Analysis-China’s stimulus promises bring property sector hope, rather than confidence
2024.10.14 03:58
By David Kirton and Nicoco Chan
SHENZHEN, China (Reuters) – Chinese finance industry professional Zhang Jing made enough money from a recent stock market rally to consider hopping on the housing ladder but wants to hear more from the government before making a purchase.
“I still don’t have enough confidence,” said the 28-year-old, who believes buying a first home will improve his chances of finding a marriage partner.
“I need to see how things develop. I hope the government can introduce some effective policies to stimulate the economy,” he said at a major property fair in the southern tech hub of Shenzhen held over the weekend.
Home-buyers, investors and consumers are buzzing in anticipation of promised economic stimulus but by-and-large are hesitant to make the big spending decisions that would collectively turn around a slowing economy – a dynamic on full display at the expo in what was once China’s biggest boomtown.
On Saturday, Minister of Finance Lan Foan said the government planned to “significantly increase” debt to revive economic activity though he did not elaborate on size or timing, disappointing many who tuned in.
Details might be missing for procedural reasons: Extra debt issuance needs approval by parliament which is set to meet in coming weeks. However, incremental and incomplete announcements are at odds with the urgency required of an economy at risk of missing this year’s roughly 5% growth target and facing sharp deflationary pressure, analysts said.
Economists expect the need for 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan ($283 billion to $424 billion) in additional fiscal stimulus. Some investors said the figure needs to be even higher to sustain the market rally.
Lan’s remarks were “not a whatever-it-takes moment,” said UBP senior Asia economist Carlos Casanova.
A key drag on the world’s second-largest economy is a prolonged downturn in the property market, which accounted for roughly a quarter of economic activity at its 2021 peak.
Some late-September policy announcements have given real estate a jolt, rekindling interest mainly from first-time buyers like Zhang.
The central bank cut interest rates and injected 1 trillion yuan into the banking sector. Then large cities such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Shanghai joined the rest of the country in removing most home-buying restrictions.
Those measures propelled Chinese stocks to two-year-highs before they retreated on uncertainty about the lack of detail.
During the Oct. 1-8 national holiday, sales by floor area leapt 23% from last year.
‘NOW IS THE TIME’
In Shenzhen, where prices are roughly 40% off their peak, some 1,841 provisional new home sales contracts were signed during the period, up 664% from last year, the city’s housing authority said.
In the Daya Bay area nearby, new advertising boards read: “Home prices are at their lowest point. Now is the time to buy.”
But at the property fair, some sellers were not confident the improvement in sentiment could be sustained.
Chen Gengtao, sales manager for property developer Manjinghua, was exhibiting apartments in two different projects – a more central one, which is seeing “noticeable” increase in buyer interest, and one on the outskirts, which is not.
While recent policies have been “favourable,” Chen was unsure the worst had passed, especially in Shenzhen, home to many export industries at a time of heightened trade tension. U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump has called for 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods if he wins next month’s election.
“Stocks, real estate and trade are all very unstable,” said Chen. “Many people are losing their jobs, young men can’t find job opportunities and there is no room for wage increases. How can they buy houses?”
At 5% growth, China is still growing faster than most of the world but for millions of consumers, who came of age when growth was averaging 9%, it feels like a recession.
Almost one in five people aged 16 to 24 are unemployed. A private report by recruiting platform Zhaopin showed average pay offered in 38 major cities fell 2.5% in the third quarter from the second.
Wang Zhiyu, deputy general manager of Shenzhen Metro’s real estate unit, was of the opinion that “the most difficult times have not yet passed”. He said it was clear that government policy toward the sector “has shifted” but “the purchasing power of the people also needs to be supported”.
One visitor at the fair felt more confident. Financial consultant Wang Yali, 54, wants to move to a better area of Shenzhen before she retires.
“The recent policies are good,” she said. However, she said she would haggle for better prices. “The reality now is developers shouldn’t beat around the bush too much.”
($1 = 7.0792 renminbi)
