Macquarie projects US crude stock build, sees product surge
2025.01.13 15:10
On Monday, Macquarie strategists projected an increase in US crude inventories and a significant build in product stocks for the week ending January 10.
Analysts at Macquarie estimate that US crude inventories rose by 3.0 million barrels, which is a shift from the 4.3 million barrel build expected earlier and contrasts with the 1.0 million barrel draw seen in the week ending January 3.
The forecast includes a decrease in crude runs from refineries by 0.4 million barrels per day (MBD) and a modest drop in net imports, with exports falling by 0.2 MBD and imports by 0.3 MBD.
The strategists noted that the timing of cargo arrivals could introduce variability in this week’s crude balance and that the impact of year-end timing effects could also contribute to volatility in the statistics.
Furthermore, Macquarie anticipates a moderate uptick in implied domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, by 0.4 MBD following a weaker figure last week.
However, they also warn that winter weather could affect this estimate. Additionally, they expect a small increase in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory of 0.5 million barrels over the week.
On the products side, Macquarie forecasts a substantial build in gasoline inventories of 4.4 million barrels. Distillate and jet fuel stocks are also expected to rise, by 1.3 million barrels and 1.9 million barrels, respectively.
The total implied demand for these three products is projected to be around 13.7 MBD for the week ending January 10.
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