USD/CAD: Canadian Dollar Awaits GDP Data After Four Consecutive Losing Weeks

12/23/2024

1 minute read

2024.12.23 09:41

The posted its fourth straight losing week, declining about 1%. In Monday’s European session, the USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.4397, up 0.16% at the time of writing.

Canada’s GDP Expected to Remain at 0.1%

The market is keeping expectations low for today’s report, with a forecast of 0.1% m/m for October after a 0.1% gain in September. The economy grew at annualized rate of 1% in the third quarter, which was below the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 1.5%.

The economic outlook remains weak and the Bank of Canada is expected to continue lowering rates in order in order to kick-start the economy. The BoC has been aggressive, cutting five times since June for a total of 175 basis points. The central bank slashed the benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 3.25% earlier this month, the first time since the COVID pandemic that the BoC has delivered back-to-back jumbo cuts of 50 basis points. We can expect a dovish shift in rate policy, however, as Governor Macklem said that the BoC would take a “more gradual approach to monetary policy”. This is likely to mean rate cuts in increments of 25 bp, provided that inflation and employment data comes in as expected.

The New Year could bring be marked by political instability in Canada. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland quit the government last week and Prime Minister Trudeau could face a non-confidence motion from his coalition partner in January. Trudeau has plummeted in popularity and increasingly it appears that his days as prime minister are numbered.

The US wrapped up the week with the expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. Headline dropped to 0.1% in November from 0.2% in October but annually ticked higher to 2.4%, up from 2.3%.

was unchanged at 2.8% y/y. Monthly, rose 0.1% from 0.3% in October. The data indicated that inflation showed limited movement in November but remains above the Fed’s 2% target. USD/CAD-4-Hour Chart