Strong tailwinds for gold’s excursion into uncharted territory

By Brijesh Patel and Sherin Elizabeth Varghese

(Reuters) – Geopolitical tensions, uncertainty created by the upcoming U.S. Presidential election and prospective interest rate cuts look set to help power gold prices, already at records above $2,500 an ounce, to even loftier levels.

A rally which has lifted gold to $2,526.07 an ounce this week has made the precious metal one of 2024’s best performing assets. It is up nearly $460 or more than 20% so far this year.

Gold, typically used as a hedge against political and economic uncertainty, has been boosted by Russia’s war on Ukraine and hostilities in the Middle East.

“We could see gold moving towards $2,600 or $2,700 … towards the end of the year,” said Amelia Xiao Fu, head of commodity markets at BOCI. “We have the U.S. elections, there’s still a lot of uncertainty.”

Growing expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in September have boosted the appeal of safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries, and undermined the dollar which has a negative relationship with bullion.

“We still see very significant value in long gold positions, and maintain our bullish $2,700 forecast for 2025. Fed rate cuts are poised to bring Western capital back into the gold market,” said Lina Thomas, commodities strategist at Goldman Sachs.

Strong support also comes from China, which bought gold for its reserves for 18 consecutive months to April before suspending its program due to elevated prices.

“Chinese price sensitivity insures against hypothetical large price declines, which would likely reinvigorate Chinese buying,” Thomas added.

Further contributing to the upsurge in gold prices is that investors have been piling into physically-backed gold exchange traded funds (ETFs), which recorded net inflows last week of 8.5 metric tons, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).

“Rate cuts could see interest rate-sensitive investors return to gold via ETFs,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.