ADB slightly raises 2024 growth forecast for developing Asia
2024.07.16 20:32
MANILA (Reuters) – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) slightly raised its growth forecast for developing Asia this year due to stronger domestic demand and export growth, but said downside risks from a series of important elections and geopolitical tensions remain.
Growth in developing Asia, which groups together 46 economies in the Asia-Pacific, is now expected to be 5.0% this year, the ADB said in a report on Wednesday, a touch higher than its 4.9% forecast in April. The region grew by 5.1% in 2023.
For 2025, the ADB maintained its growth forecast at 4.9%.
“Policy uncertainty related to elections in major economies, particularly the United States, clouds the outlook,” the ADB said, adding potential escalations in conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine also posed challenges.
The ADB kept its 2024 and 2025 growth forecasts for China at 4.8% and 4.5% respectively, but noted a risk that a property slump there could deepen and lead to weaker growth prospects.
Official data on Monday showed China’s economy grew 4.7% in April-June from a year earlier, its slowest since the first quarter of 2023.
The ADB expects regional inflation to slow to 2.9% in 2024 from 3.3% last year, before nudging up to 3.0% in 2025.
GDP GROWTH 2022 2023 2024 2024 2024 2025 2025
DEC APR JULY APR JULY
Caucasus and 5.2 5.3 4.6 4.3 4.5 5.0 5.1
Central Asia
East Asia 2.9 4.7 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.2
China 3.0 5.2 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.5
South Asia 6.6 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.5
6.9
India 7.0 8.2 6.7 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.2
Southeast 5.7 4.1 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7
Asia
Indonesia 5.3 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Malaysia 8.7 3.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6
Myanmar 2.4 0.8 n/a 1.2 n/a 2.2 n/a
Philippines 7.6 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.2
5.5
Singapore 3.8 1.1 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6
Thailand 2.5 1.9 3.3 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.0
Vietnam 8.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.2
5.1
The Pacific 7.9 3.5 2.9 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.0
Developing 4.3 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9
Asia
5.1
INFLATION
Caucasus and 12.9 8.4 7.9 7.6 7.0 6.8
Central Asia
10.2
East Asia 2.3 0.6 2.1 1.3 0.8 1.6 1.6
China 2.0 0.2 2.0 1.1 0.5 1.5 1.5
South Asia 8.0 8.4 6.7 7.0 7.1 5.8 5.8
India 6.7 4.2 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5
5.4
Southeast 5.3 4.1 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0
Asia
Indonesia 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Malaysia 3.4 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
Myanmar 27.2 22.0 n/a 15.5 n/a 10.2 n/a`
Philippines 5.8 6.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.4
Singapore 6.1 4.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.2
Thailand 6.1 1.2 2.3 1.0 0.7 1.5 1.3
Vietnam 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
The Pacific 5.2 3.0 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.1
Developing 4.4 3.3 3.6 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.0
Asia
