Are U.S. Treasury markets anticipating Trump 2.0? Yardeni Research weighs in

Investing.com — A move higher in U.S. Treasury yields following last week’s debate between President Joe Biden and Republican challenger Donald Trump may be a signal that the bond market is pricing in a victory for Trump in this November’s presidential election, according to analysts at Yardeni Research.

On Monday, the benchmark touched 4.48%, its highest level since May 31, after hovering at around 4.29% prior to the debate. Yields typically move inversely to prices.

The uptick in the yield came despite last Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred metrics for inflation — pointing to an ongoing cooling in inflation. The trend was viewed as a boost for hopes that the Fed will ratchet down interest rates from more than two-decade highs later this year.

“We think the bond market is reacting to the increased probability of a second term in the White House for President Donald Trump,” the analysts said.

Analysts argued that bond investors are expecting Trump’s return to power could lead to a mix of “stronger economic growth” and “higher inflation.”

Meanwhile, should Trump opt to extend his 2017 individual and estate tax cuts that are set to expire next year, analysts expect the Treasury Department would have to borrow more, “unleashing a torrent of supply that would likely outsrip demand at current rates.”

Analysts noted that the rise in yields would likely be led by the long end of the yield curve, signaling that markets’ long-term economic predictions are shifting but their short-term outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates “hasn’t changed much.”