Marketmind: Signs of confidence re-emerge after bank storm

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga

Market gyrations are common but the scale of recent moves across asset classes due to a slew of bank takeovers has shocked even the most experienced traders and investors.

Safe-havens such as gold and Treasuries are in high demand along with more speculative instruments, such as tech stocks and bitcoin, as worries over the banking crisis are boosting disparate assets.

While UBS shares were hammered in early trading on Monday after its shotgun marriage with troubled Credit Suisse following an intervention by Swiss authorities, the bank’s shares pared most of the losses towards the close.

The biggest pain seems to have been inflicted on holders of Credit Suisse’s risky debt, leading lawyers from Switzerland, the U.S. and Britain to talk to many Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond holders about possible legal action, a law firm said.

On Tuesday, Asian equities staged a tentative recovery as the buyout of Credit Suisse eased immediate worries of a knock-on effect to other banks, while the U.S. dollar was stuck near a five-week low.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the market turmoil might do some of the ECB’s work for it in dampening demand and inflation.

Markets have been on high alert for central banks to raise interest rates sharply to cope with high inflation.

However, there could be some surprises now.

ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann watered down his recent call for three more rate increases of 50 basis points in quick succession.

Holzmann, who heads the Austrian National Bank, told German business daily Handelsblatt two weeks ago the ECB should raise rates by 50 basis points at each of its next four meetings.

The ECB made one such increase at its meeting last week.

Meanwhile, just hours after the state-backed takeover by UBS of troubled Credit Suisse was announced, memorabilia bearing the 167-year-old bank’s name and logo was being put up for sale in Switzerland, marking the end of an era for Credit Suisse.

Over $95 billion in market value wiped out in 2 weeks

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

Meetings: Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to engage in formal talks regarding Beijing’s proposals for a war resolution

Meetings: Britain’s finance minister speaks to the Economic Affairs Committee

Central bank meetings: The Federal Reserve convenes for its two-day monetary policy meeting. Policy decision is on Wednesday