Why This Rebound Still Has Room To Run

2022.10.19 23:37

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The finished Tuesday +1% higher, making this the third gain out of the last four sessions. And equally encouraging, the index is challenging the October highs, not bad for a market that was making multi-year lows only a few days ago.

S&P 500 Index, Daily Chart

Nothing much improved since last Thursday when September’s report remained stubbornly high. But when bearishness is near historic levels, we don’t need good news to fuel a relief rally, simply being less bad than feared can be the spark that ignites a rebound from oversold levels. And let me tell you, Thursday’s bullish +5% intraday reversal was one hell of a spark.

Lucky for readers of this blog, we knew something big was coming even if we couldn’t be confident in the direction. As I wrote last Tuesday:

A big trade is around the corner, we just need to be patient and wait for it to come to us. Don’t let these meaningless, near-term gyrations throw you off. But once it gets here, don’t be afraid to grab hold because there will be lots of easy and fast profits to be had.

Everyone knows markets move in waves and it’s been a long and mostly one-way fall from the September highs, so even bears should have been prepared for a fast and hard bounce. Too bad greed and hubris cloud a person’s judgment.

Anyone can point out what’s obvious after it happened, but what readers really want to know is what comes next. Easy, there is no reason to assume the buying is anywhere near close to being done. The market loves symmetry and it’s been a dramatic and oversized fall from the September highs, so it is only reasonable to expect a similarly dramatic and meaningful rebound.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m not claiming symmetry means are headed back to the September highs, just that we should expect an equally dramatic and meaningful rebound to recover from these oversold levels. And it will take a lot more than three days of buying to balance out two months of nearly non-stop selling.

And this should go without saying, but markets don’t move in straight lines and this remains a volatile market, meaning we should expect lots of back and forth. But over the next few weeks, expect more up than down. In fact, a good bit more up than down. But don’t get complacent because those down days will be enough to make us doubt ourselves. We don’t need to look any further than Friday to see how strong the second-guessing can be. But as I said earlier, we are still in the early days of this rebound.

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