Marketmind: Hurtling towards recession
2022.08.22 11:38
FILE PHOTO: An employee restocks a sales display inside a Naturalia organic foods grocery store operated by Casino Group, following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Bretigny-sur-Orge, near Paris, France, July 30, 2020. REUTERS/Benoit
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga
After the latest data confirmed fears about a runaway rise in euro zone consumer prices, will business activity spring a double whammy?
While European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel did not rule out a technical recession in the 19-country block in a Reuters interview last week, euro zone flash PMIs will be watched closely this week for recession risks.
The August numbers, due on Tuesday, may show another month of contraction in business activity after S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI)’s final composite PMI index slumped to a 17-month low in July.
Any further weakness could spell more bad news for the euro as it stumbled to a fresh five-week trough on Monday.
High energy prices and shortages are already piling pressure on euro zone businesses.
In the latest blow, Russian state energy giant Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) says it will halt natural gas supplies to Europe for three days at the end of the month.
Gas prices in Europe are already near five-month highs. Europe is racing to refuel ahead of winter.
Flash PMI numbers from Britain and the United States are also due on Tuesday.
Economists in a Reuters poll expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 50 basis points in September amid expectations inflation has peaked and growing recession worries, but who said the risks were skewed towards a higher peak.
Graphic: Reuters Poll- U.S. recession probabilities – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/egpbkdwndvq/Reuters%20Poll-%20U.S.%20recession%20probabilities.PNG
The day’s main story was China cutting its benchmark lending rate, on top of last week’s easing measures, as Beijing pulls out all the stops to revive an economy hobbled by a property crisis and a resurgence of COVID-19 cases.
Growth pangs kept Asian shares subdued on Monday, while unease over China’s economy dragged the yuan to a 23-month low.
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
China cuts lending benchmarks to revive faltering economy:
Nord Stream 1 pipeline to shut for three days in latest fuel blow to Europe:
Asian shares in the red:
