6 months of sideways? Bitcoin price action mimics 2023 lull
2024.06.21 05:43
Bitcoin (BTC) has months of consolidation left if early bull market behavior repeats itself.
In his latest market commentary, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital drew fresh comparisons between BTC price action this year and in 2023.
BTC price forms “similar looking range” to 2023
Bitcoin may be firmly rangebound since its latest block subsidy halving in April, but the lack of BTC price upside should not concern bulls, Rekt Capital suggests.
Looking at Bitcoin bull market phases past and present, he showed that as recently as last year, BTC/USD experienced extended periods of nonvolatile moves.
“Bitcoin tends to form Re-Accumulation Ranges after the Halving,” he summarized on X (formerly Twitter).
“But we’ve also seen Bitcoin form a similar-looking range in this cycle already as well (blue circle).”
BTC price comparison. Source: Rekt Capital/X
An accompanying chart directly compared the current status quo to a multi-month consolidation phase that spanned Q2 and Q3 2023.
Should such a setup be in place now, Bitcoin would remain in its narrow trading corridor for several more months.
Other analysis meanwhile argued that this week’s BTC price correction was “long overdue” based on previous bull markets.
Here, a chart pitted 2024 against the early innings of the Bitcoin bull market in mid-2016.
BTC price comparison. Source: Rekt Capital/X
Bitcoin hash rate in limbo with price
As Cointelegraph reported, the so-called “re-accumulation phase” is being reflected not only in price but also in miner activity.
Related: Bitcoin price rebound may hit in 10 days as Fed liquidity ‘rips higher’
Since the halving cut miners’ per-block subsidy by 50%, a new “capitulation” has begun, per the popular Hash Ribbons metric.
This compares the 30-day average hash rate to its 60-day equivalent, and when the former drops below the latter, “capitulation” begins. Historically, such periods have signaled suitable buying opportunities, with the last occurring in Q3 last year.
“I know it sucks, but BTC is not going to break all time highs until more pain and boredom plays out,” Willy Woo, creator of on-chain statistics platform Woobull, commented about the phenomenon this week.
“On the bright side, miners are capitulating and when that is through, it nearly always ends in a huge rally. Look for compressions in this ribbon. Buy and hodl in these regions.”
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons. Source: Glassnode
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
