3 reasons why Bitcoin (BTC) is up today
2024.07.01 15:17
Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 4.5% from June 28 to July 1, breaking the $63,000 resistance for the first time in a week. The prior decline was largely due to fears stirred by the German government’s BTC transactions with exchanges and worries about Mt. Gox creditors selling large amounts of Bitcoin during the bankruptcy proceedings. However, this bearish trend was reversed by three key factors, including the entry of a possible new major investor into the market.
Bitcoin/USD 12-hour price index. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin FUD cedes after a Michael Dell post and spot ETF inflows
On July 1, the German government moved 1,500 BTC, valued at $95 million, to various cryptocurrency exchanges, as reported by the onchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence. On a similar note, the United States government transferred 1,184 BTC on June 30 from a wallet linked to previously confiscated funds. As of now, the German government possesses Bitcoin assets worth $2.8 billion, primarily acquired from a defunct movie piracy site closed in 2013.
These transactions fueled speculation that the selling pressure might persist, as the U.S. government’s wallet also holds Bitcoin valued at $13.4 billion, according to data from Arkham Intelligence. The most significant recent transaction by the U.S. government occurred on June 26, when it sent 3,940 BTC, worth $214 million at that time, to a Coinbase Prime account. These funds were confiscated from Banmeet Singh, a convicted drug trafficker, earlier in 2024.
Despite these government sales exceeding $300 million, Bitcoin’s price demonstrated resilience. This resilience was bolstered as the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) absorbed part of the offer, adding a net $137 million in just four trading days from June 25 to June 28. Moreover, the growing instability in traditional markets and the entrance of significant new players into the Bitcoin ecosystem have strengthened investor confidence.
Billionaire Michael Dell, founder and CEO of Dell Technologies, sparked excitement on June 21 with a suggestive message about a possible Bitcoin investment. Dell, listed by Forbes as one of the 20 richest people in the world, posted a meme featuring the Cookie Monster clutching some Bitcoin-shaped cookies. Joe Consorti, an analyst at Bitcoin Layer, highlighted that Dell’s company has $5.83 billion in cash and equivalents.
On July 1, Amber Japan, a Tokyo-based subsidiary of Sony, changed its name to S.BLOX to focus on cryptocurrency trading. The firm emphasized that the updates aim to enhance user-friendliness and expand its features. S.BLOX, a member of the Japan Virtual Currency Exchange Association (JVCEA), boasts $10.5 billion in capital, based on the latest financial reports. Sony Corporation had $11.8 billion in cash and equivalents as of March 2024.
Inflated tech stocks valuation boosts demand for alternative assets, including BTC
Some investors’ improved outlook on Bitcoin stems from concerns that tech stocks in the U.S. have reached excessively high valuations, as sales expectations for the second quarter may fall short. Yahoo Finance reported that a study by Charlie Bilello from Creative Planning showed a “super steep” forward sales estimate of 21 times for Nvidia, a significant jump from 12 times just two months earlier. For context, Microsoft trades at 12 times forward sales and Apple at eight times.
Related: History suggests Bitcoin poised for rebound in July
Furthermore, analysts anticipate a 3.7% decline in Tesla’s second-quarter sales due to intense competition in China and sluggish demand from the lack of affordable new models, as noted by Yahoo Finance. The electric vehicle company is set to announce its corporate earnings on July 2. Earlier in 2024, CEO Elon Musk canceled plans for a new, more affordable electric vehicle, which sparked some concerns. Tesla’s stock has fallen 15.5% since the start of the year.
In summary, the rising demand for Bitcoin also mirrors investors’ dissatisfaction with the valuations of traditional market assets, such as stocks and real estate. The S&P 500 reached its highest point ever on June 28, with gains largely concentrated in a few tech stocks. Meanwhile, the average price for a new single-family home in the U.S. fell to a six-month low in May.
This dynamic helps explain why the fear, uncertainty and doubt surrounding U.S. and German government Bitcoin transactions have subsided, paving the way for a rally above $63,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
