3 Bitcoin price metrics showing ‘insane’ similarities to 2020 breakout
2023.06.15 14:18
Bitcoin (BTC) is copying the prelude to its 2020 breakout to an “insane” extent, the co-founders of Glassnode have said.
In a tweet on June 15, Yann Allemann and Jan Happel highlighted three BTC price metrics that are anything but bearish.
Metrics echo Bitcoin’s “major reversals and rallies”
BTC/USD reached local highs of $31,000 in April but, since then, has dipped around 20%. Sentiment has taken a beating in the process, with downward price predictions becoming the norm in the intervening weeks.
While recent events have placed additional pressure on the market, Allemann and Happel see at least three good reasons for optimism.
Several on-chain indicators, they revealed, now look uncannily like they did in Q3 2020, just before BTC/USD beat its old 2017 all-time high of $20,000.
“The resemblance to Sep 04, 2020, is insane…,” they wrote in part of commentary.
Leading the line-up is the classic relative strength index (RSI), which measures how overbought or oversold BTC/USD is at a specific price point.
Daily RSI currently measures 35, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms. This is its lowest reading since early March, just before Bitcoin’s most recent uptick, which resulted in the $31,000 peak a month later.
“RSI is at levels that led to major reversals and rallies,” the post explained.
BTC/USD 1-day candle chart on Bitstamp with RSI. Source: TradingView
Continuing, Allemann and Happel flagged the Cipher B readings for Bitcoin, these coming from a collection of algorithms that converge to offer signals of, among other things, when to buy dips during bull markets.
“Cipher b wave trends are at levels that led to major reversals and rallies,” they repeated.
Finally, the appropriately named Bitcoin Risk Signal is back at its Sept. 4, 2020 position. Risk Signal predicts the likelihood of a major BTC price drawdown and, at that time, saw a spike to “high risk” before receding.
What happened next was a flat Risk Signal reading for successive months, while BTC/USD broke higher.
Bitcoin Risk Signal chart. Source: Glassnode
Hodlers big and small increase BTC exposure
Elsewhere, Glassnode flagged encouraging signs suggesting investors keeping the faith long term.
Related: ‘Pick your targets’ — Bitcoin analyst believes Fed will favor bulls
For lead on-chain analyst Checkmate, accumulation among existing hodlers remained impressive.
“Pretty doomy out there,” he tweeted about sentiment on June 15.
“Meanwhile, Bitcoin Shrimp, Crabs, and Fish (wallets < 100 $BTC) are adding to their balance at a rate of 248% times the amount freshly minted by miners. Sharks (100 to 1k $BTC) adding an additional 38%. Coins are coming out of exchanges. Halving is ~310 days away.”
Accompanying charts showed so-called “Absorption Rates” for various hodler cohorts by wallet size.
Bitcoin Absorption Rates charts. Source: Checkmate/Twitter
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
