Financial market overview

Week Ahead Europe – A Big UK Data Drop, ECB Speakers and Eurozone GDP

2024.02.09 16:01

MarketPulse

  • Will ECB policymakers depart the door open to a March fee minimize?
  • UK information eyed amid division on the BoE

Eurozone GDP might depart bloc getting ready to recession

The eurozone seems to have averted a recession on the finish of final yr however it might have merely been delayed.

GDP information for the fourth quarter might be launched on Wednesday and is anticipated to indicate the bloc didn’t develop once more within the remaining months of the yr. It will solely take a slight miss to go away the euro space susceptible to being in recession within the present quarter.

That mentioned, ECB policymakers in all probability gained’t be significantly swayed by whether or not the eurozone is simply in technical recession or not. That it’s taking place whereas inflation is falling – and is anticipated to fall a lot additional within the coming months – might do although. And we’ll hear from a variety of them subsequent week.

EURUSD Daily

EUR/USD-Daily Chart

Source – OANDA

has trended larger for many of the week after a foul begin to it and an finish to final. It’s run into assist across the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement degree which ought to be an fascinating take a look at going ahead.

Economic Calendar

Can the BoE be satisfied to chop charges in May?

The Bank of England might not be prepared to chop rates of interest but however we should always have a greater concept subsequent week simply how shut they’re.

The standout launch is of course the CPI information on Wednesday because the BoE mandate is inflation at 2% – half the extent it stood at in December. Inflation is anticipated to fall over the approaching months however a better decline in January might assist the case of reducing charges sooner. Equally, the next quantity might be a large setback and recommend progress has stalled which might see fee expectations pared again once more.

The jobs report on Monday can be key, most notably the typical earnings part, as this can be a main contributor to cost pressures. Particularly within the providers sector, an space central banks are most involved about in relation to getting inflation sustainably again to 2%. Average earnings progress each together with and excluding bonuses had been above 6% within the three months to December, a degree far too excessive to be in keeping with 2% inflation.

GBPUSD Daily

GBP/USD-Daily Chart

Source – OANDA

The pound has rebounded towards the this week however that’s occurred after it broke under the neckline of a topping formation between 1.26 and 1.28. retraced again to the 50% Fibonacci retracement degree however has failed to interrupt above there to date.

Economic Calendar

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