Stock Markets Analysis and Opinion

S&P 500 Earnings: Q4 EPS Upside Surprise Is +6.4% – Robust Once Again

2024.02.05 04:15

Even although the earnings reviews from Amazon (NASDAQ:), META (NASDAQ:) and Apple (NASDAQ:) aren’t within the knowledge as a result of LSEG cuts off the earnings and market knowledge as of Thursday night time’s market shut, the upside shock for Q4 ’23 EPS closed the week at +6.4%, versus the +7.2% from Q3 ’23. That would possibly even enhance once more subsequent week, however fairly than speculate let’s see how the information falls out.

The income upside shock this week for Q4 ’23 S&P 500 improved to +1.2%, versus Q3 ’23’s +0.9%.

Not dangerous given how cautious the overall sentiment was coming into the Q4 ’23 earnings season.

How has 2024 Guidance Impacted Full-Year Sector EPS Growth Estimates?S&P 500 EPS Growth Rates By SectorS&P 500 EPS Growth Rates By Sector

Technology has held up very properly for full-year ’24 as has communication providers (will most likely look even higher subsequent week after META’s EPS estimates get revised), whereas client discretionary is probably going seeing a tug of conflict between Amazon (positively) and Tesla (NASDAQ:) (negatively) when it comes to EPS adjustments.

S&P 500 Q1-24 Sector EPS Growth RatesS&P 500 Q1-24 Sector EPS Growth Rates

This chart is the adjustments for Q1 ’24 earnings, which can start being reported in mid-April ’24. It’s following the standard sample, that means decrease revisions as we strategy the quarter. Readers hopefully bear in mind how destructive the Street was watching the discount in Q4 ’23 EPS estimates from October by means of December ’23.

Energy and supplies are actually flattening Q1 ’24 EPS estimates.

S&P 500 EPS Revenue Expected Growth RatesS&P 500 EPS Revenue Expected Growth Rates

Open this desk and take a look at the primary column. Look on the heavy downward revisions to S&P 500 Q4 ’23 EPS estimates all all through the 4th quarter of ’23.

Now take a look at the newest week: precise development is again as much as +7.8% as of this morning, for Q4 ’23 S&P 500 EPS development.

It began at +10% on 9/30/23, fell to a low of +4.4% as of January 12 ’24 and now the rise to +7.8% as of two/2/24. (That’s a typical sample for S&P 500, albeit possibly the drop in Q4 ’23 was a bit of larger than anticipated.

on January 1, 24 in regards to the upside shock for Q4 ’23.

With GDP development and this morning’s jobs development, it’s no surprise S&P 500 earnings are cooperating.

That being stated, take it a month at a time.

S&P 500 Data:

  • The ahead 4-quarter estimate (FFQE) is $241.97 versus final week’s $242.61 and early January 24’s $243.98;
  • The PE on the ahead estimate is a bit of over 20x, similar as final week, with anticipated S&P 500 EPS development in ’24 of 9% – 10%;
  • The S&P 500 earnings is beneath 5% once more at 4.88% (not a giant fan of being beneath 5%);
  • The Q4 ’23 bottom-up EPS estimate for the S&P 500 is now $55.36 versus 12/31’23’s $54.69 and 9/30/23’s $58.14;
  • The upside shock knowledge has already been famous – it’s nonetheless fairly wholesome. Let’s see if it improves once more subsequent week;

Conclusion:

With mega-cap know-how earnings this week, it’s one other wholesome earnings season, though I do have to notice that lots of the megacap tech firms had been lapping very simple comp’s from Q4 ’22.

Readers can see the outcomes wanting on the S&P 500 and this week, with the S&P 500 +1.38% and the Nasdaq 100 +1.25% respectively. Both indices are buying and selling at all-time-highs. The remains to be about 600 factors shy of November ’21, 16,200 peak.

There aren’t a whole lot of firms that report subsequent week that shoppers are concerned in.

I’ve to inform readers: monetary shares appear stymied by the yield curve and the outlook for financial coverage. Each time they seem like they need to run, robust financial knowledge knocks them again. JP Morgan, (JPM), shoppers 2nd largest fairness holding retains wanting prefer it needs to interrupt out above $175 after which peters out. The yield curve inversion shouldn’t be terribly pleasant for the banks.

None of that is recommendation or a advice. Past efficiency isn’t any assure or suggestion of future outcomes. Investing can contain the lack of principal. All S&P 500 EPS and income knowledge is sourced from LSEG London Stock Exchange Group, until in any other case famous. Readers ought to gauge their very own urge for food for portfolio volatility and alter accordingly.

As all the time, thanks for studying.

Source link

Related Articles

Back to top button
bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 42,983.52 0.44%
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 2,314.44 1.00%
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 0.998838 0.11%
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 304.47 1.58%
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 97.10 0.47%
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 0.503485 1.69%
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 0.999897 0.04%
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 2,315.59 1.00%
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.50117 0.55%
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 35.43 0.52%
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.078757 0.17%
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 18.62 5.27%
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.118935 1.57%
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 6.89 2.20%
matic-network
Polygon (MATIC) $ 0.781989 1.06%
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 2.05 1.25%
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 42,908.50 0.52%
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 12.58 1.39%
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000009 0.56%
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 67.52 0.36%
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 0.999614 0.02%
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 236.46 1.80%
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 6.03 0.22%
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 4.06 0.88%
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 24.99 0.65%
cosmos
Cosmos Hub (ATOM) $ 9.04 0.18%
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.108997 0.71%
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 8.96 0.55%
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 166.37 0.17%
celestia
Celestia (TIA) $ 18.17 6.68%
immutable-x
Immutable (IMX) $ 2.16 1.75%
optimism
Optimism (OP) $ 3.05 3.83%
injective-protocol
Injective (INJ) $ 32.95 0.23%
okb
OKB (OKB) $ 48.33 0.48%
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.78 0.00%
bittensor
Bittensor (TAO) $ 437.20 2.30%
first-digital-usd
First Digital USD (FDUSD) $ 0.999359 0.00%
filecoin
Filecoin (FIL) $ 4.99 0.36%
lido-dao
Lido DAO (LDO) $ 2.74 0.49%
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.068886 0.78%
kaspa
Kaspa (KAS) $ 0.100439 0.60%
arbitrum
Arbitrum (ARB) $ 1.76 0.42%
crypto-com-chain
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.081251 0.25%
blockstack
Stacks (STX) $ 1.49 0.42%
vechain
VeChain (VET) $ 0.027909 0.80%
mantle
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.589514 0.25%
maker
Maker (MKR) $ 1,994.27 1.02%
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 1.52 2.31%
render-token
Render (RNDR) $ 4.46 7.73%
quant-network
Quant (QNT) $ 101.90 0.62%