Rio Tinto lifts 2025 guidance for capex, copper output

LONDON (Reuters) -Anglo-Australian mining group Rio Tinto (NYSE:) on Wednesday lifted its capital expenditure guidance for 2025 and forecast higher production, mostly on an anticipated 50% output surge from its Mongolian assets. 

Across operations, it is projecting 3% compound annual growth from 2024 onward. While Rio Tinto’s profits primarily stem from iron ore, it is increasing its focus on copper, demand for which is expected to benefit from the energy transition.

The miner aims to reach annual copper production of 1 million metric tons by 2030, evolving into a major player in the clean energy supply chain focusing on high-quality, low-emission raw materials.

“As we ramp up the Oyu Tolgoi underground copper mine (in Mongolia), deliver the Simandou high-grade iron ore project in Guinea, and build out our lithium business through the proposed acquisition of Arcadium, we are underwriting a decade of profitable growth,” CEO Jakob Stausholm said.

The company expects overall capital expenditure to rise to $11.0 billion for fiscal 2025 – $1 billion above a previous forecast – from $9.5 billion in 2024.

The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, set to be the world’s largest new iron ore mine, will add around 5% to global seaborne supply when it comes on line at the end of 2025. Rio plans to spend about $6.2 billion on the development, with more than half on port and rail infrastructure.

Rio in October agreed to buy lithium producer Arcadium for $6.7 billion, a strategic move set to make it the world’s third-largest lithium miner, significantly boosting its presence in the electric vehicle battery supply chain. 

Its Rincon starter project in Argentina achieved first lithium production last week, it said, but the huge Jadar project in Serbia, marred by environmental protests, could take at least two years to secure permits to go ahead.

The world’s largest iron ore producer said it expects copper production in fiscal 2025 of 780,000-850,000 tons, against 660,000-720,000 tons a year earlier.

It maintained its projected capital expenditure for decarbonisation through 2030 at the lower end of the $5 billion-$6 billion range, having last year cut the budget from a previous estimate of $7.5 billion.

Rio is dual listed in Sydney and London, where its shares were down 12% and 14% respectively this year.  

On Wednesday activist investor Palliser Capital demanded Rio Tinto scrap its primary listing in London and unify its corporate structure in Australia, saying about $50 billion in shareholder value has already been lost due to the dual listing. 

“So far, we have not got anything that tells us that the structure we have is not the best structure,” Stausholm told investors in London.