Muted crude and product balances expected this week: Macquarie
2024.10.01 09:00
Investing.com — Analysts at Macquarie have issued their forecast for the week ending September 27, indicating minimal changes in U.S. crude and product balances.
They project that inventories will stay largely unchanged, with a small increase of only 0.1 million barrels.
This represents an adjustment from their previous estimate of a 3.6 million barrels build, particularly after a draw of 4.5 million barrels for the week ending September 20.
Macquarie outlines several factors affecting this week’s crude balance. Refineries are expected to reduce their crude runs slightly, by about 0.2 million barrels per day.
Net imports are anticipated to remain largely unchanged, with only a minor drop in exports and a small decline in imports of 0.1 million barrels per day.
The timing of cargo arrivals is noted as a potential source of volatility, indicating ongoing complexities in the crude market.
In terms of domestic supply, despite a weak production report from last week, Macquarie expects a rebound, projecting an increase of 0.4 million barrels per day.
This is happening even amid ongoing disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, a modest rise in Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory is predicted, with an increase of 0.7 million barrels.
On the product side, analysts forecast a draw in distillate stocks of about 1.4 million barrels. Gasoline inventories are expected to decline slightly by 0.3 million barrels, while jet fuel stocks are likely to remain steady.
Overall, the analysts project that implied demand for these three products will be around 14.2 million barrels per day for the week ending September 27.
The Macquarie analysis provides a practical view of the current crude and product balances, recognizing the uncertainties in the market while anticipating some stability in the near future.
