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Earnings name: LyondellBasell reports robust 2023 outcomes, strategic growth

2024.02.02 20:17


© Reuters.

LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) revealed a powerful monetary efficiency in its fourth quarter and full-year 2023 earnings name, asserting earnings of $8.65 per share with an EBITDA of $5.2 billion for the yr. The firm surpassed its worth enhancement program targets, attaining over $400 million in annual EBITDA enhancements.

LyondellBasell additionally detailed its strategic focus, which incorporates rising its core enterprise, advancing in round and low carbon options, and enhancing efficiency and tradition. Notably, the corporate goals for vital EBITDA growth by 2027 and is realigning assets, together with divesting non-core companies.

The acquisition of a 35% stake in a Saudi-based three way partnership and an settlement to promote its ethylene oxide and derivatives enterprise have been among the many strategic strikes highlighted.

Key Takeaways

  • LyondellBasell achieved $8.65 earnings per share and a $5.2 billion EBITDA in 2023.
  • The firm exceeded its worth enhancement program goal, including over $400 million to its annual EBITDA.
  • It goals for $2 billion in incremental normalized EBITDA by 2025 and $3 billion by 2027.
  • LyondellBasell plans to divest non-core companies and put money into round and low carbon options.
  • Cash from operations totaled $4.9 billion in 2023, with a 98% money conversion charge.
  • Over $1.8 billion was returned to shareholders, and the quarterly dividend elevated by 5%.
  • The firm acquired a 35% stake in NATPET, a polypropylene producer, anticipated to shut within the first half of 2024.

Company Outlook

  • LyondellBasell is redirecting assets from non-core companies to deal with its strategic growth areas.
  • The firm is dedicated to disciplined capital allocation and offering aggressive shareholder returns.

Bearish Highlights

  • The firm acknowledges challenges in China, with barely unfavourable margins anticipated to enhance within the second half of the yr.
  • Profitability of the O&P EAI enterprise is a priority, with actions taken together with shutting down a line in Brindisi.

Bullish Highlights

  • The firm has carried out initiatives that generated over $300 million in EBITDA, primarily based on projected 2023 margins.
  • LyondellBasell plans to allocate $800 million for profit-generating growth initiatives in 2024.

Misses

  • There have been no particular misses talked about within the offered context.

Q&A Highlights

  • The NATPET three way partnership’s present capability is round 400KT, with potential growth to 1 million tons.
  • Payout targets are primarily based on free money move, with sustainable CapEx at $1.2-1.3 billion and growth CapEx at $2-3 billion yearly.

LyondellBasell’s strategic progress and monetary outcomes mirror the corporate’s dedication to growth and shareholder worth. With a transparent deal with enhancing its core enterprise, increasing into worthwhile round and low carbon options, and sustaining a disciplined strategy to capital allocation, the corporate is poised for continued success within the coming years. The acquisition of a stake in NATPET underscores this technique, doubtlessly creating new income streams and alternatives for growth. Despite some challenges, notably within the Chinese market, the corporate’s management is taking proactive steps to enhance profitability and optimize operations. As LyondellBasell strikes ahead with its long-term technique, buyers and stakeholders can anticipate a deal with environment friendly money technology and robust monetary efficiency.

InvestingPro Insights

LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) has demonstrated resilience with a robust monetary efficiency, as mirrored within the latest earnings name. To present a deeper understanding of the corporate’s present monetary well being and potential, let’s delve into some key metrics from InvestingPro.

InvestingPro Data highlights a market capitalization of $30.15 billion, showcasing the corporate’s vital presence within the trade. The P/E Ratio stands at a gorgeous 11.67 when adjusted for the final twelve months as of Q3 2023, indicating a doubtlessly undervalued inventory in comparison with earnings. Meanwhile, the corporate’s income for a similar interval reached $41.38 billion, regardless of a income growth decline of twenty-two.03%. This means that whereas the corporate’s top-line gross sales have confronted headwinds, its profitability metrics stay sturdy.

The InvestingPro Tips provide strategic insights for buyers contemplating LYB. One tip highlights the corporate’s dividend yield, at the moment at 5.38%, which is especially interesting for income-focused buyers. Another tip factors out the corporate’s honest worth, with InvestingPro’s evaluation suggesting a goal of $130.03, considerably greater than the earlier shut worth of $94.61. This discrepancy signifies potential upside for the inventory.

For these trying to discover additional, InvestingPro supplies an array of further ideas, at the moment providing a particular New Year sale with reductions of as much as 50%. To improve your funding evaluation, use coupon code “SFY24” for an additional 10% off a 2-year InvestingPro+ subscription, or “SFY241” for a further 10% off a 1-year subscription. These provides can equip buyers with deeper insights into LyondellBasell’s monetary standing and future outlook, complementing the strategic growth areas and shareholder worth highlighted within the article.

Full transcript – LyondellBasell Industries NV (NYSE:) This autumn 2023:

Operator: Hello, and welcome to the LyondellBasell teleconference. At the request of LyondellBasell, this convention is being recorded for immediate replay functions. [Operator Instructions] I’ll now flip the convention over to Mr. David Kinney, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, it’s possible you’ll start.

David Kinney: Thank you, operator. Before we start the dialogue, I wish to level out {that a} slide presentation accompanies at present’s name and is obtainable on our web site at www.lyondellbasell.com/investorrelations. Today, we will likely be discussing our enterprise outcomes, whereas making reference to some forward-looking statements and non-GAAP monetary measures. We consider the forward-looking statements are primarily based upon cheap assumptions, and the choice measures are helpful to buyers. Nonetheless, the forward-looking statements are topic to vital danger and uncertainty. We encourage you to study extra concerning the elements that would lead our precise outcomes to vary by reviewing the cautionary statements within the presentation slides and our regulatory filings, that are additionally accessible on our Investor Relations web site. Comments made on this name will likely be in regard to our underlying enterprise outcomes utilizing non-GAAP monetary measures, equivalent to EBITDA and earnings per share, excluding recognized gadgets. Additional paperwork on our Investor web site present reconciliations of non-GAAP monetary measures to GAAP monetary measures, along with different disclosures, together with the earnings launch and our enterprise outcomes dialogue. A recording of this name will likely be accessible by phone starting at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time at present till March 2, by calling 877-660-6853 within the United States and 201-612-7415 exterior the United States. The entry code for each numbers is 13742056. Joining at present’s name will likely be Peter Vanacker, LyondellBasell’s Chief Executive Officer; our CFO, Michael McMurray; Ken Lane, our Executive Vice President of Global Olefins and Polyolefins; Kim Foley, our EVP of Intermediates & Derivatives and Refining; and Torkel Rhenman, our EVP of Advanced Polymer Solutions. During at present’s name, we are going to deal with fourth quarter and full yr 2023 outcomes, together with an replace on LYBs strategic progress. We may even talk about present market dynamics and our near-term outlook. With that being stated, I’d now like to show the decision over to Peter.

Peter Vanacker: Thank you, David, and welcome to all of you. We recognize you becoming a member of us at present as we talk about our fourth quarter and full yr 2023 outcomes. Let’s start as we at all times do, with our security outcomes on Slide 3. During 2023, our staff and contractors demonstrated their dedication to excellent security efficiency. LYBs whole recordable harm charge was 0.14, which is roughly 20% decrease than the common of the prior three years. I need to congratulate our APS segments the place accidents have been 38% decrease than 2022, a major enchancment from historic ranges. We at all times use security efficiency as a number one indicator of operational excellence and enterprise efficiency. But there isn’t a larger worth than seeing each member of our staff return house to their households on daily basis in the identical well being has once they started to work their working day. So flip to Slide 4 to debate our monetary outcomes. 2023 was one other difficult yr for petrochemicals. While vitality costs moderated in an surroundings of geopolitical unrest, markets have been extraordinarily cautious resulting from uncertainty about inflation and the potential for a extra pronounced downturn in financial exercise. Reported GDP growth in U.S. and China improved relative to 2022, the growth in petrochemicals was far under norms for our trade. Against that backdrop, LYB delivered earnings of $8.65 per share with an EBITDA of $5.2 billion. Cash technology was distinctive, and resulted in $4.9 billion of money from operations. We have a extremely environment friendly money conversion ratio of 98%. We ended the yr with $7.6 billion of liquidity supported by a powerful funding grade stability sheet. And we exceeded our value of capital with an 11% return on invested capital. In March of final yr, we efficiently launched our new technique at our Capital Markets Day in New York. Now let’s flip to Slide 5 and briefly overview the technique. Our objective was to create focus, readability, and alignments about route LyondellBasell could be transferring over the subsequent 5 years and supply a transparent imaginative and prescient of what the corporate would appear to be in 2027. Our technique is constructed round three pillars, rising and upgrading the core, constructing a worthwhile round and low carbon options enterprise and stepping up efficiency and tradition. In rising and upgrading the core, we’re investing in companies that match with our aggressive benefits and long-term technique. Our round and low carbon options enterprise is driving management in circularity and addressing the huge demand for these merchandise from our prospects and society. In the third pillar, we’re reworking the tradition of LYB to embed a extra complete view of worth creation, whereas persevering with to acknowledge that stringent value administration is important in our trade. On Slide six, we spotlight our progress on our technique in 2023 and the work underway over the subsequent few years in the direction of over 2027 targets. In simply 10 months, since launching our technique final March, LyondellBasell has unlocked almost 1/3 of the $3 billion of incremental normalized EBITDA that we’re focusing on for 2027. The profitable startup of the PO/TBA plant this yr is a significant step ahead in rising and upgrading our core by including roughly $450 million to our normalized EBITDA. And I’m more than happy to report that our price enhancement program is much exceeding our preliminary expectations. In 2023, the VEP achieved a yr finish run charge of greater than $400 million of midcycle recurring annual EBITDA enhancements, Michael will share extra particulars on the progress of the VEP in a number of moments. As proven on the slide, we now have quite a few workstreams underway to construct in the direction of our strategic targets of $2 billion of incremental normalized EBITDA by 2025, and a complete of $3 billion by 2027. With the introduced sale of the ethylene oxide and derivatives enterprise to Ineos for $700 million, we’re redirecting assets away from non-core companies. The deal we introduced in January to accumulate 35% of NATPET in Saudi Arabia for roughly $500 million is only one instance of how we’re rising our core value advantaged olefins, and polyolefins companies. We’re making nice strides and constructing sturdy foundations for our round and low carbon options enterprise. In 2023, we took a last funding determination for our first tranche of superior recycling capability in Germany, utilizing our proprietary catalytic MoReTec expertise. And we’re constructing partnerships to supply waste plastic to produce our app in Germany, whereas additionally securing waste plastic in Houston to produce our subsequent funding a sophisticated recycling capability. And the VEP program isn’t a one-time initiative, Michael will describe our elevated targets for 2024 and past. While we now have numerous work forward of us, I need to congratulate our staff on the substantial progress we achieved on our strategic journey in 2023, guaranteeing a robust platform for long term worth creation and constructive leverage to any market turnarounds. On Slide seven, let’s check out the steps forward to ship on our targets. We will proceed to develop and improve our core companies by specializing in advantaged feedstocks in rising markets, the place LYB can construct or lengthen our main market place. Our new three way partnership in Saudi Arabia is one instance of how we are going to do that. As we add new positions, we are going to proceed to overview our portfolio for companies and property that aren’t aligned with our long-term technique. The divestiture of EO and derivatives enterprise, the sale of our Australian polypropylene enterprise. The shutdown of a polypropylene line in Italy and the exit of the refining enterprise for all examples of how we’re sharpening the main focus of our enterprise portfolio. The speedy progress of the LYB worth enhancement program additionally contributes to our growth by low-cost capability debottlenecks and productiveness enhancements. We’re making good progress on constructing the foundations for our round and low carbon options enterprise as we work in the direction of our objective of $500 million of incremental EBITDA by 2027 and $1 billion by 2030. And our VEP isn’t solely delivering growth and productiveness, the VEP additionally helps the third pillar of our technique to step up efficiency and tradition by instilling a value-based mindset throughout the corporate. With quite a few initiatives to enhance margins by buyer and industrial excellence embedded within the VEP. And our work is to remodel our advance polymer options enterprise can be an essential a part of our work to step up efficiency and tradition. All of our progress is supported by our foundations of environment friendly money technology, disciplined capital allocation, and our funding grade stability sheet. We’re leveraging partnerships the place it matches to realize growth with capital effectivity. And we’re pursuing a really worth centered funding program. And we stay steadfast in our help for a safe, aggressive and rising dividends as a part of our dedication to aggressive shareholder returns. And now, I’ll flip the decision over to Michael to debate the small print of our monetary progress.

Michael McMurray: Thank you, Peter. And good morning, everybody. Please flip to Slide eight and let’s check out the progress of our price enhancement program. As Peter talked about, LYBs worth enhancement program far exceeded our preliminary expectations in 2023. When we launched this system, we thought we might obtain a 2023 year-end run charge of $150 million of midcycle recurring annual EBITDA enchancment. With excessive engagement and speedy execution, our staff achieved a run charge of greater than $400 million by year-end 2023. We have a powerful administration system in place for our VEP program. Our staff has screened greater than 13,000 concepts, and greater than 1900 of those concepts have superior to the execution prepared stage of our course of. By the tip of 2023, we executed on roughly 450 of those initiatives. Our system is robust and disciplined, and our inner and exterior auditors have validated our processes. We at the moment consider this effort will add a complete of $600 million of recurring annual EBITDA by the tip of 2024 and as much as a billion {dollars} by the tip of 2025. This is a major enhance from our preliminary goal of $750 million that we introduced final March, pushed by the enthusiastic [indiscernible] of our colleagues and the tangible outcomes that we now have delivered to this point. The LYV worth enhancement program is offering significant contributions to our strategic monetary targets. And we’ll proceed to take action as we transfer ahead. On Slide 9, let me share extra particulars concerning the progress on our VEP program throughout 2023. Our targets for this system are described as year-end run charges relative to 2021 volumes, and utilizing common margins from 2017 to 2019, a time interval that gives approximation of mid cycle margins. Through greater than 450 initiatives, we generated over $300 million of VEP EBITDA from this system primarily based on 2023 margins. This displays the online recurring enhancements all year long relative to 2021 quantity, product combine and price. Now, let me spotlight a number of of the initiatives from final yr. At our Lake Charles built-in polyethylene three way partnership, we automated controls for a water remedy unit that lowered handbook operations and water consumption. With a small funding, we have been capable of scale back our LYB share of value by $800,000 yearly. In our oxy fuels enterprise, our value advantaged U.S. manufacturing is exported in vessels to markets world wide. We labored with considered one of our terminal suppliers to encourage their funding in a vapor restoration system that allowed LYB to double decile loading charges to scale back demerge value and vapor emissions for a web recurring advantage of $1 million per yr. By investing assets to study extra concerning the wants of our prospects, our polymer product growth staff allotted assets for brand new merchandise to serve demanding purposes and wired cable sheathing for subsea infrastructure markets. This initiative improved recording profitability by no less than $300,000 per yr. We hope these examples supplies you some perception into the a whole bunch of small initiatives that we now have that we anticipate so as to add as much as $1 billion of midcycle recurring annual EBITDA to LYBs run charge by the tip of 2025. Please flip to Slide 10. And let me start by highlighting the excellent Cash Generation from our enterprise portfolio throughout 2023. LYB generated a complete of $4.9 billion of money from working actions over the previous yr. Cash available elevated to $3.4 billion on the finish of the fourth quarter. During 2023, we achieved money conversion of 98% nicely above our long-term goal of 80%. Our money conversion was bolstered by working capital discount of roughly $700 million throughout the fourth quarter. The majority of the working capital profit was from decrease receivables and inventories. We anticipate our working capital wants will enhance throughout the first quarter. Our environment friendly money technology allowed the corporate to return greater than $1.8 billion to LyondellBasell shareholders in 2023. This represents 53% of our $3.4 billion of free money move for the yr. Let’s proceed with Slide 11 and overview the small print of our capital allocation over the previous yr. As Peter talked about, we’re dedicated to self-discipline capital allocation as we execute our technique and keep our robust funding grade stability sheet. During 2023 money from working actions absolutely funded $1.6 billion in dividends $210 million in share repurchases and our capital funding program. In May, we elevated our quarterly dividend by 5%, marking the thirteenth consecutive yr of annual dividend growth. This yr, we invested 1.5 billion in capital expenditures. We reached an essential milestone with the profitable startup of our new PO/TBA asset in 2023. With the completion of this world scale venture, our future capital expenditures will likely be more and more centered on a portfolio of smaller initiatives to advance our technique. This contains investments in small revenue producing initiatives, built-in hubs for round options, and a whole bunch of initiatives throughout the worth enhancement program. We ended the yr with $3.4 billion of money and short-term investments, then $7.6 billion of money and accessible liquidity. In line with our strategic deal with management and sustainability. We issued our preliminary inaugural inexperienced bond for $500 million LYBs robust stability sheet positions as nicely to maneuver ahead on our long run technique throughout the yr forward. One final remark. We added over a billion {dollars} of money to our stability sheet in 2023 on account of sturdy execution amid difficult market circumstances. As a end result, we’re carrying about two instances our acknowledged minimal of 1.5 billion. We have constructed a bit more money due to the difficult market circumstances and unsure financial outlook that we now have been navigating. That stated our capital allocation priorities stay unchanged. And we stay dedicated to returning 70% of our free money move to shareholders over the long-term. Now I wish to present an summary of the quarterly outcomes for every of our segments on Page 12. LYBs enterprise portfolio delivered $910 million of EBITDA throughout the fourth quarter. Our decrease outcomes mirror a major decline in gasoline crack spreads in seasonally decrease demand throughout the fourth quarter. Lower gasoline cracks bedspreads negatively impacted our refining outcomes oxy fuels within the intermediates and Driftwood phase and the worth of coproduct fuels and olefins and polyolefins Americas. During the quarter, decrease ethane in vitality value and elevated polyethylene exports benefitted our O&P Americas enterprise. Overall, olefins and polyolefins demand remained comfortable, notably in Europe, the place utilization charges remained low. Lower demand and better uncooked materials prices negatively impacted our superior polymer resolution phase. Across the portfolio, a noncash LIFO stock valuation cost decreased pre tax for quarter outcomes by roughly $55 million. As a reminder, the LIFO influence displays modifications in stock valuation over the complete yr and it is not essentially restricted to fourth quarter valuations. Before we talk about our phase leads to element, let me talk about our capital expenditure plans for 2024, our capital plan contains roughly $800 billion for revenue producing growth initiatives, and $1.3 billion of sustaining funding to maintain our property operating safely and reliably. The elevated revenue producing capital contains investments to develop our round and low carbon options enterprise, in addition to investments to decrease the carbon footprint of our current asset base, notably in Europe. Funding required to drive our price enhancement program is included in our CapEx plan. We anticipate our 2024 efficient tax charge will likely be roughly 20%. And our money tax charge will likely be a number of proportion factors greater. In the appendix of the slide deck, we now have offered further 2024 modeling info, together with impacts for main plant upkeep prices related to the exit from our refining enterprise than different helpful monetary metrics. With that, I’ll flip the decision over to Ken. Ken?

Ken Lane: Thank you, Michael. Let’s start the phase discussions on Slide 13 with the efficiency of our olefins and polyolefins Americas segments. Fourth quarter EBITDA was $604 million. During the quarter a major lower in co-product values negatively impacted olefin’s margins. Polyolefins costs have been steady domestically, whereas a really sturdy export quantity led to some decrease pricing in our general portfolio. Strong demand from export markets continues to drive elevated polyethylene volumes, and we did not see the everyday seasonal slowdown. We operated our property at roughly 85% of nameplate capability to match market demand and continued to actively handle working capital. Fourth quarter EBITDA included a LIFO stock valuation profit of roughly $75 million. During the primary quarter, we anticipate polyethylene costs to stay agency with modest enhancements in home demand and ongoing energy in export markets. We anticipate ethane and vitality prices will stay favorable for our property within the area, offering some margin tailwinds. Overall, we anticipate to function our O&P Americas property at a mean of roughly 80% throughout the first quarter, barely decrease than fourth quarter 2023 resulting from plant upkeep. In December, we signed two new renewable energy buy agreements. With these agreements, we have achieved virtually 90% of our objective to acquire no less than 50% of our world energy from renewable sources by 2030. In whole, we now have 12 agreements in place, representing greater than 1.3 gigawatts of renewable energy capability. As we talked about, final quarter, we introduced our funding in Cyclyx, a three way partnership with Agilyx and ExxonMobi. This partnership is targeted on rising plastic waste, recycling infrastructure to enhance circularity. In December Cyclyx introduced the ultimate funding determination to construct the primary Cyclyx circularity middle in Houston. The circularity middle will deal with rising plastic waste recycling choices, by higher sourcing and sorting of plastic waste. The facility could have the capability to supply greater than 130,000 tons of plastic feedstock per yr for superior and mechanical recycling and is anticipated to begin off in 2025. Now, please flip to Slide 14 to overview the efficiency of our olefins and polyolefins. Europe, Asia and worldwide phase. During the quarter, European markets remained weak with softer seasonal demand and decrease shopper confidence. Polymer costs have been modestly greater with an improved gross sales combine and steady naphtha feedstock prices. Due to the low demand, we operated our property at charges of roughly 65% throughout the quarter. The mixed influence of the weak demand and low charges result in a fourth quarter EBITDA lack of $87 million. As we transfer into 2024, we anticipate weak European demand will stick with ongoing shopper uncertainty. Nonetheless, we’re seeing modest enhancements in orders as some prospects start to restock and search native provide as imports transferring by the Red Sea are disrupted. We anticipate to function our European property at a charge of 75% throughout the first quarter. Demand in China stays muted as prospects handle inventories with the strategy of the lunar new yr amid a sluggish financial surroundings. As Peter talked about earlier, we’re making nice progress on our technique to develop and improve our core companies. Our latest announcement to accumulate a 35% share of naphtha displays our deal with property which have long-term benefit. But we’re additionally transferring away from the property that may’t ship long-term competitiveness, as demonstrated by final yr’s determination to shut considered one of our two polypropylene property in Brindisi, Italy. We’re additionally making good progress with constructing our round and low carbon enterprise. During the fourth quarter, we made the ultimate funding determination to construct our first industrial catalytic superior recycling plant at our Wesseling Germany web site. With an estimated capability of fifty,000 tons per yr this plant will make the most of our differential MoReTec superior recycling expertise. And similar to in Houston, we’re collaborating with companions to safe plastic waste feedstock in Germany. In December, we acquired a minority share of Source One plastics, a plastic waste sourcing firm in Germany. Source One will present the vast majority of the processed plastic waste feedstock to our new MoReTec property. Through our built-in hub mannequin, we’re establishing an built-in round worth chain at scale. Now please flip to Slide 15. And let’s take a more in-depth have a look at our new NATPET three way partnership. Just a few weeks in the past, we introduced our settlement to accumulate a 35% share of nationwide petrochemical industrial firm or the place NATPET from Alujain Corporation and Yanbu, Saudi Arabia. The three way partnership is a good instance of how we’re rising our core companies with benefit of the property by leveraging LYBs main expertise and world market attain. Today, NATPET consists of 400,000 tons of propane dehydrogenation or PDH capability that converts value benefit Saudi propane into propylene monomer to feed a 400,000 ton polypropylene unit using LYBs proprietary Spheripol expertise. The property have been operational since 2009 and have generated an annual common of U.S.$155 million in EBITDA over the 5 years from 2018 to 2022. NATPETs PP merchandise serve a various vary of consumers throughout world markets. As a part of the transaction, LYB will leverage our world advertising community to promote a majority of the product on behalf of web pet creating a brand new income stream for LYB. NATPETs property are first quartile which have the benefit of sourcing native Saudi propane feedstock at a reduction to world costs. Also our funding in NATPET supplies a platform for continued growth. In 2022, NATPET was awarded a brand new feedstock allocation that would help further capability. The companions are evaluating a second PDH PP asset on the positioning that may profit from significant synergies. Previously, Alujain chosen LYB sphere zone polypropylene expertise for the potential growth. The high-performance polypropylene options enabled by our proprietary sphere zone expertise supplies the potential to broaden NATPETs manufacturing into new purposes and markets. We anticipate our funding in NATPET will exceed our 12% goal for unlevered inner charges of return. The further capability might present even greater returns. We anticipate the transaction will shut within the first half of 2024 following regulatory approvals and different customary closing circumstances. With that, I’ll flip the decision over to Kim.

Kim Foley: Thank you, Ken. Please flip to Slide 16, as we check out our intermediates and derivatives phase. Fourth quarter EBITDA was $265 million. Oxyfuel margins declined resulting from a major lower in gasoline spreads in addition to an elevated provide of oxyfuels after trade downtime throughout the third quarter. Direct margins have been pressured resulting from greater benzene feedstock prices, LIFO stock expenses have been roughly $95 million. In the fourth quarter we acknowledged an impairment of $192 million associated to our PO/SM three way partnership within the Netherlands. We operated our property at a charge of roughly 70% throughout the fourth quarter resulting from low demand in addition to deliberate and unplanned downtime throughout most companies. As we start the primary quarter oxyfuel margins stay much like fourth quarter ranges. We anticipate greater volumes throughout the phase after downtime within the fourth quarter and plan to function throughout the IMD phase at roughly 75% within the first quarter. These working charges mirror the influence of the latest winter freeze occasion, leading to unplanned downtime at our U.S. Gulf Coast property. In December, we introduced an settlement to divest our ethylene oxide and spinoff enterprise to Ineos for $700 million. As Peter talked about earlier, we’re taking decisive actions to develop and improve that companies and property that align with our long-term technique. While exiting companies the place LYB doesn’t have a path to a number one place. We anticipate the transaction will shut within the second quarter following regulatory approvals, and different closing circumstances. Please be aware that the agreed transaction worth is pre-tax, and that these property are closely depreciated. Now let’s flip to Slide 17 and talk about the outcomes of the refining phase. Fourth quarter EBITDA was $51 million, together with expenses of $40 million of LIFO stock valuation refining margins compressed resulting from decrease gasoline crack spreads. During the quarter we operated the refinery at 85% of capability resulting from deliberate and unplanned downtime, with a mean crude charge of 230,000 barrels per day. In the close to time period, we anticipate gasoline crack spreads will enhance offset by decrease distillate cracks. We plan to function the refinery directionally 80% of capability within the first quarter, together with a deliberate Coker outage with an estimated EBITDA influence of $50 million. Our staff stays extremely centered on secure and dependable operations as we proceed to run our refining property by no later than the tip of the primary quarter of 2025. With that, I’ll flip the decision over to Torkel.

Torkel Rhenman: Thank you, Kim. Now let’s overview the outcomes of our superior polymer options phase on slide 18. Fourth quarter EBITDA declined to $12 million. Margins have been pressured by greater uncooked materials value and volumes decreased resulting from seasonally decrease fourth quarter demand with a slowdown in December resulting from buyer outages. Likely stock valuations advantages have been $10 million. Looking forward, we see indicators of market restoration and anticipate modest demand enchancment within the first quarter. This yr, we continued our transformation journey with superior polymer options. APS leads to 2023 have been decrease than 2022 and never mirrored of our monetary expectations for this enterprise. Success with APS prospects is basically primarily based on project-by-project qualification. Today’s underperformance is indicative of our low success charge in gaining new {qualifications} throughout prior quarters. However, our laser deal with our prospects is gaining momentum. We have seen a step up in our latest surveys for buyer satisfaction. With a company that’s centered and accountable. We’re making regular progress as we rebuild our venture growth funnel. Our growth pipeline is already delivering. During the fourth quarter of 2023, volumes improved by 2.5% over the prior yr. I need to congratulate the APS staff for attaining file security efficiency in 2023. I really consider our buyer focus, as measured by our latest buyer satisfaction survey, our progress in refilling our growth funnel and our superior security outcomes displays our consideration to element that gives a number one indicator for operational efficiency and eventual monetary outcomes. With that, I’ll return the decision again to Peter.

Peter Vanacker: Thanks, Torkel. I wish to thank the complete LyondellBasell staff for delivering such resilient outcomes throughout a really difficult yr. To shut out on the segments, let’s flip to Slide 19 and talk about the outcomes for our expertise enterprise on behalf of Jim Seward. During the fourth quarter, licensing income moderated after exceptionally sturdy leads to the third quarter because of the timing of licensing milestones. Nonetheless, EBITDA for the phase exceeded the fourth quarter of the prior yr. Fourth quarter catalyst volumes have been greater than any quarter for the reason that third quarter of 2022. First quarter outcomes for the expertise segments have been anticipated to enhance resulting from elevated licensing income and an extra rise in catalyst volumes in comparison with the fourth quarter of 2023. As Ken talked about earlier, we are going to make the most of our proprietary MoReTec expertise as we construct our first industrial scale superior recycling plant in Germany. I’m very pleased with the work our R&D staff launched into years in the past to develop this differential and benefit expertise from lab to industrial scale. Let me now summarize our outlook with Slide 20. As we start 2024, the vast majority of our companies are persevering with to face the sluggish demand seen within the fourth quarter of 2023. But we’re seeing a number of early indicators of enchancment. Our North American O&P enterprise is seeing modest demand enhancements. In Europe, order developments have been bettering from a really low degree as our O&P prospects start to pursue modest restocking. For the yr, we anticipate regular seasonal demand enhancements to start close to the tip of the primary quarter and proceed by the summer season. As we progress by the second half of the yr, we anticipate demand to profit from moderating rates of interest and lowered inflation. Durable items are a vital marketplace for LYBs merchandise. Demand for sturdy items lacked the economic system throughout 2022 and 2023. As markets digested the extraordinary excessive ranges of shopper exercise that prevailed throughout pandemic period stimulus. We anticipate that moderating rates of interest, lowered inflation and infrastructure-related stimulus spending will start to help a gradual return to a more healthy demand for sturdy items throughout the second half of this yr. China is the most important marketplace for chemical substances, exceeding North America and Europe mixed, and we proceed to look at carefully for focused stimulus and different measures that would drive improved financial growth in China. In the meantime, LYB will proceed to advance on our strategic targets. We are actively managing our portfolio to develop and improve our core companies. We will proceed to see actions supporting the growth of regional hubs that can function the engines for our worthwhile round and low-carbon options enterprise. And our work to embed worth creation into our company tradition will proceed to ship outcomes by our price enhancement program. We’re now happy to take your questions.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first query comes from the road of Stephen Richardson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed together with your query.

Stephen Richardson: Peter, I used to be questioning in case you might simply dig in a bit bit on the expectations for the second half and possibly just a bit bit extra on the O&P companies. What sort of restoration are you sort of underwriting in your outlook? And how do you assume that performs out and any guideposts past the statements on durables we needs to be excited about because the yr progresses?

Peter Vanacker: Thank you, Stephen. As regular, superb query out of your aspect. To begin with, as we alluded to, I imply, we’re nonetheless a bit prudent on the steering for Q1. But after we are trying on the second half of this yr, a few issues that I need to level to. This has been the longest downturn that we now have seen so far as I can look again in our historical past. So one would anticipate I imply that there will likely be, in case you have a look at inflation charges taking place, rates of interest taking place, extra shopper confidence in Europe possibly additionally in China, that demand would go up. So from a requirement aspect, one would anticipate that demand would go up. And that covers not solely the O&P enterprise, but in addition in case you have a look at sturdy teams, particularly. As everyone knows, demand has been very low final yr in sturdy items, which, in fact, has rather a lot to do with very excessive rates of interest and due to this fact, shopper conduct so additionally, you’ll anticipate that sturdy items demand would go up, I imply, particularly within the second half of this yr. The United States, as you realize, has been fairly robust. We have been capable of navigate. You see robust margins additionally on the polyethylene aspect. And additionally right here, as you realize, inflation charges are taking place. You see already a bit little bit of indications. There is extra home builds, homes [indiscernible] which might be being bought. And that, in fact, has a direct influence on demand for sturdy items.

Operator: Our subsequent query comes from the road of Steve Byrne with Bank of America. Please proceed together with your query.

Steve Byrne: Sorry about that. Pardon me, I used to be on mute sorry about that. Just concerning the napped three way partnership, it looks as if it is roughly 10x EBITDA, is that roughly proper? And do you see potential for this funding to generate the next EBITDA down the highway? And I simply questioning the idea for that funding, given it looks as if polypropylene bit oversupplied. And I suppose my different query on it could be what are the contract phrases for the propane that you just get from Saudi, any danger that worth might get escalated down the highway.

Peter Vanacker: Thank you, Steve. Also query on NATPET. First of all, I imply, we’re more than happy that we have been capable of signal this deal that has been work of a core staff in our firm the place I used to be personally, in fact, deeply concerned throughout fairly an essential time period to come back to this conclusion. When you have a look at the sum of money that we paid and Ken alluded to that in his remarks, then one can not simply have a look at the EBITDA, mid-cycle EBITDA to $150 million for the complete firm. But what you do not see and what must think about is the truth that we’re the trail to market, so we’re producing worth for the corporate that comes out of promoting the merchandise exterior of Saudi Arabia to our different markets. And due to this fact, additionally strategically crucial as a result of we now have a really sustainable low-cost feedstock foundation that we now have negotiated that’s included within the deal in order that we’re higher positioned in Polypropylene to go to sure markets the place possibly at present, we do not have one of the best place. And right here, let’s not overlook that we did shut ’19 at our Brindisi property in Italy as nicely. In addition to that, as we alluded to, we now have the earnings streams generated out of our license agreements. We have the chance to proceed to take a position with the second line subsequent to the present traces to seize synergies there. And that is why Ken alluded to the truth that with the present deal, we’re in iron ore, which is above 12%. But then as we do the second step, then we’d be greater to say, I imply, fairly greater than 12% or no last funding determination but, however it’s also a part of the consideration in doing that first.

Michael McMurray: Steve, within the a number of might be nearer to 9 versus 10 only for readability.

Peter Vanacker: Without taking into account, I imply, advertising charges, et cetera, et cetera.

Operator: Our subsequent query comes from the road of Patrick Cunningham with Citi. Please proceed together with your query.

Patrick Cunningham: Maybe throughout the $800 million in growth CapEx allotted for this yr, how a lot of that’s straight associated to round and low-carbon options? And past that, what ought to we anticipate when it comes to inorganic growth and extra investments in that house for 2024?

Peter Vanacker: I’ll simply discuss with the Capital Markets Day, we stated about 15% over the cycle. Michael, do you need to add one thing to that, for subsequent yr?

Michael McMurray: Yes. I imply what I’d say is that the steering that we gave at Capital Markets Day for CapEx stays intact. As a reminder, we stated over the interval, ’23 to ’25 on common, we would spend $2 billion. We guided to $2.1 billion at present. And as Peter stated, the expectation for the CLC SR circularity enterprise it is about 15% to twenty% over the interval. Now particularly round inorganic growth. I’d in all probability say a few issues. I feel at our Capital Markets Day, we have been clear that we hope to get some M&A accomplished over the subsequent few years. I feel we have been fairly clear the factors that we shared with reference to rising and upgrading the core. I feel the Sasol (NYSE:) three way partnership, our new PO/TBA facility, the circularity investments that we have made and the refining exit are all nice examples after which our latest announcement of our EO and D exit is one other nice instance. And fairly frankly, it was an ideal valuation with one of the best proprietor mindset. We additionally shared our strategy to growth by M&As and joint ventures at our Capital Markets Day. And I feel with our Damped acquisition, we’re off to an ideal begin, and this clearly matches the framework, which we shared again in March. And then, it additionally has an ideal alternative for future enticing growth. And then lastly, at our March Capital Markets Day, we shared our objective of attending to $10 billion of EBITDA normalized EBITDA in 2027, which assumed we’d deploy roughly the remaining 30% of our free money move that we’ve not returned to buyers to fund our future M&A ambitions. But I need to be clear about a few issues. Our commitments to buyers stay steadfast and our capital allocation ideas and priorities stay unchanged. We will likely be disciplined acquirers we is not going to burn it in your money. We is not going to construct a lazy stability sheet. If we will not discover compelling transactions, we’ll give again extra of your money to you.

Operator: Our subsequent query comes from the road of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed together with your query.

David Begleiter: Just in IND, how a lot of the PO/TBA plant contributed in 2023? Do you assume mid-cycle earnings energy right here continues to be with the brand new CBA plant above $2 billion. And when do you assume you may begin attaining a run score at that mid-cycle earnings degree? Thank you.

Peter Vanacker: Happy birthday, Dave. We heard that you’ve your birthday at present. Good query. If I take 1 step again on the I&D enterprise in This autumn, possibly a few numbers and stick with me so $265 million, excluding recognized gadgets is the EBITDA that we generated in This autumn. But one must think about, in fact, that we had a heavy LIFO influence of $95 million. So if I add the LIFO influence of $95 million, then exit the underlying outcomes have been $360 million for This autumn evaluating to This autumn 2022 which was $291 million. So a fairly underlying efficiency, good quarter in IND and I didn’t even think about the truth that we had scheduled turnarounds bottleneck in addition to in Bayport. So we alluded to that, in our steering on the time after we launched the Q3 outcomes of an influence of about $120 million. So we laying fairly quarter in IND. And in fact, a part of that was additionally resulting from the truth that we very efficiently began up our PO/TBA plant. The new PO/TBA plant, we alluded to mid-cycle margins, $450 million. We stated final yr in yr one. So meaning 2023. We would run at a minimal of fifty% nameplate capability. We overachieved that focus on. We ran at roughly a bit bit greater than 60%, I’d say. And then, additionally after we have a look at this yr, we are going to proceed to ramp up, and we are going to do it in a really disciplined approach, reflecting on market demand for propylene oxide and oxyfuels. But one may even see additional progress, I’d say, in all probability going to 70%, possibly exceeding 70% capability utilization. And then after we transfer into 2025, that is the place one would see the complete advantage of the PO/TBA plant when it comes to capability utilization.

Operator: Our subsequent query comes from the road of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed together with your query.

Vincent Andrews: Just on the worth enhancement program. I’m simply making an attempt to know the influence to ’23 and ’24, a bit higher. If we simply kind of sort of have a look at a ratio of kind of what that 2017 to 2019 EBITDA was at Lyondell then versus what it was in 2023. If we apply that ratio to the VEP numbers, would that be about proper when it comes to what you loved from it in ’23 and what you anticipate in ’24?

Michael McMurray: Yes. What I’d say, I imply, hopefully, you heard my ready remarks, Vincent, so the profit, the precise profit in our P&L for 2023 was roughly $300 million. And then we guided for ’24 for an exit run charge of $600 million. Now in case you’re making an attempt to attract a line from ’23 to ’25, it appears to be like like that sort of the tempo of change slows a bit. But needless to say final yr, we centered on low-hanging fruit, issues that did not require funding and that we might execute upon in a short time. So we’re in sort of increase initiatives once more as we sit on this yr, however we now have excessive confidence within the outlook that we gave as much as $1 billion in 2025 and once more, $300 million of P&L profit in ’23, precise.

Operator: Our subsequent query comes from the road of Michael Sison with Wells Fargo. Please proceed together with your query.

Michael Sison: Cheers, when it comes to 2024 numerous chemical corporations you have reported so far has kind of stated their earnings might get better or be higher in ’24 versus ’23. It appears like your first half goes to be a bit bit challenged with demand being weaker and the second half being a bit bit higher. So whenever you kind of whole up doubtlessly what you see in ’24, ought to earnings be up, flat or down or simply possibly directionally for the complete yr, how do you concentrate on the setup for early?

Peter Vanacker: Well, Michael, you stated it your self. I imply, Q1, nonetheless modest Q2 seasonal calls for have been selecting up. And then what I stated at first additionally second half of the yr, we anticipate no less than, that we’ll see rates of interest taking place demand for sturdy items, I imply going up, some restoration in Europe, some restoration in China. So as a consequence, in case you added all that, one would anticipate that earnings are going to be higher than final yr.

Michael McMurray: But principally within the second half.

Operator: Our subsequent query comes from the road of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. I’m sorry. We’ll go on to our subsequent query, comes from the road of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed together with your query.

Kevin McCarthy: In 2024, would you anticipate your regional mixture of earnings to vary materially from 2023. Part of the rationale I ask is it appears to be like such as you’re guiding to a tax charge of 20% and infrequently regional combine is the rationale behind that, however maybe there are different causes you may name out. Maybe you might simply sort of discuss by the dynamics there could be useful.

Michael McMurray: Yes. I’m pleased to speak by it. So sure, I imply, the ETR, we guided to of 20% is up roughly 1 proportion level versus what was in 2023. So not an enormous story. There’s a number of give and takes. Now we did information our money tax charge to be up a few proportion factors versus final yr and likewise our ETR from 2023 and that is largely pushed by a lower in U.S. tax depreciation and likewise the acquire on the sale of our EO&D enterprise. Hopefully, that is useful.

Operator: Our subsequent query comes from the road of John Roberts with Mizuho. Please proceed together with your query.

John Roberts: Could we get an replace in your China operations each in PO styrene and your polyolefins JVs?

Peter Vanacker: Yes, John. Welcome again. Let me give that query to Ken. The alternative?

Ken Lane: Yes, positive. I’ll take a query for O&P after which possibly Kim, you’ll be able to touch upon IND. But for O&P, we proceed to function the three way partnership at technical minimums. The focus actually is on discovering higher product combine and buyer combine in area. Our focus after we entered that three way partnership was to construct out an elevated presence within the home market as a result of we do market the high-density polyethylene and polypropylene from the asset. The staff did an ideal job with that final yr. So earnings, in fact, are nonetheless very challenged in China. If you have a look at common margins, they’re nonetheless barely unfavourable which we’re seeing that in our asset. Even with a brand new world-scale asset, it nonetheless is a really difficult market, and we anticipate to begin to see some enchancment in that within the second half of the yr. But to this point, demand has been, I’d say, modestly bettering, however have not seen actually an enchancment in margins but, Kim?

Kim Foley: I’d say because it pertains to the joint ventures we now have on the propylene oxide information. We ran each of these JVs above 95% working charges final yr, excluding a turnaround, which was considerably greater than different PO vegetation in that area. As Ken alluded to, the margins have been slightly skinny. We noticed excessive uncooked materials prices, and we additionally noticed excessive utilities. But as we have talked about earlier than, these are one of the best applied sciences that we now have within the area. They are very value aggressive. They sit on built-in websites owned by an excellent operator with experience in each of those applied sciences. And we expect as we go ahead, we now have big potential right here.

Peter Vanacker: And could I add to that additionally, you in all probability observed some information move round China, phasing out chlorine-based propylene oxide applied sciences in the direction of 2025. The majority of propylene oxide capability in China that may be phased out for time which additionally matches for us very nicely along with our world technique, the profitable start-up of our PO/TBA plant. And we’re operating this enterprise efficiently below Kevin’s management from a worldwide foundation.

Operator: Our subsequent query comes from the road of Mike Leithead with Barclays. Please proceed together with your query.

Mike Leithead: I wished so as to add round O&P EAI, EBITDA has been under breakeven, I feel 4 out of the final 6 quarters. And I recognize demand is not nice throughout most markets. But it simply looks as if there’s been a little bit of a shift right here versus the profitability prior to now decade. So do we have to take a much bigger restructuring overhaul to make this enterprise worthwhile once more? Do we have to anticipate the world to get higher? I imply simply how are you approaching that enterprise right here in ’24?

Peter Vanacker: Yes. Thank you, Mike. An excellent query. And you have seen from our actions already final yr that we’re turning round each stone. We did shut down one line in Brindisi, which is a crucial capability. We’ve seen that there was a few different bulletins within the market when it comes to consolidations. We proceed to look, in fact, on the complete portfolio. That’s what you’ll anticipate us to do. But having stated that, I additionally mirror again on This autumn. So in an enormous image on for the corporate for us, was in the direction of the tip of the yr, we wished to additionally optimize our money move and dealing capital. And we freed up about $700 million in working capital in that This autumn. And as a consequence, in fact, can also see this enterprise in the direction of decrease than what we had initially guided to. 75% of capability utilization was the steering. We lowered at actually surprisingly low ranges 65% of our capability utilization. Again, within the context of additionally with the present market surroundings, optimizing our working capital. Anything you need to add?

Ken Lane: No, that is it. I imply that simply impacted the P&L with the absorption of the mounted prices that associate with that. But we pulled onerous on the working capital lever, and we’ll proceed to remain centered on maximizing money move. Challenging surroundings.

Peter Vanacker: Yes. And we see the longer term additionally in Europe. You see additionally that regulation is progressing when it comes to renewable and round options which is definitely additionally what we’re focusing upon, I imply, with various actions when it comes to constructing [indiscernible], the ultimate funding determination for our MoReTec-1 facility, however numerous joint ventures and feedstock cooperations that we now have constructed up within the meantime. So that in Europe, I proceed to consider that these round and renewable options, they demand, native provide chains. So due to this fact, will probably be crucial to have such a number one place in an area market with the entry to model homeowners or EPS enterprise, entry to OEMs as nicely.

Operator: Our subsequent query comes from the road of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed together with your query.

John McNulty: Just a follow-up on the NATPET three way partnership. I suppose, are you able to assist us to know when it comes to the flexibility to upscale that with the extra allocation, is it comparable in scale or dimension, wouldn’t it be sort of the 400 KTA? And additionally, when you concentrate on the timing of monetary funding determination and likewise how the capital will get allotted? Is it going to be proportional is identical sort of 35%, 65% or is there some completely different variation to that? Can you assist us to consider these?

Peter Vanacker: Yes, the present capability, as you rightfully stated, is round, 400KT so with the opposite that Ken referred to. We would be capable of scale as much as in whole capability of 1 million tons. Again, we now have 35% of the three way partnership. So that 35% is legitimate for the present capability, however we can be legitimate for future capability if we take a last funding determination. Ken some extra info that you just need to share?

Ken Lane: Yes, I’ll simply add that a part of the synergy that you just had talked about earlier than is that area is wanting propylene. And so we’ll have further propylene capability with this growth, which is without doubt one of the synergies round doubtlessly executing that. But will probably be financed by the three way partnership. And sure, will probably be proportionate for the shareholders, however we do not anticipate to be placing money in. That’s going to be one thing financed by the three way partnership.

Operator: Our last query this morning comes from the road of Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please proceed together with your query.

Matthew Blair: Looking on the 70% payout goal versus free money move simply within the context of accelerating CapEx whenever you’re contemplating these payout targets, why is the denominator free money and no more of like a money from operations. Don’t it’s essential to stability these returns on the growth investments in opposition to returning money to buyers.

Michael McMurray: Not positive I absolutely perceive your query, nevertheless it’s fairly typical whenever you’re giving payout targets to provide it on the free money move line versus working money move.

Peter Vanacker: And then we additionally, on the Capital Markets Day guided to phrases, that what’s the CapEx degree that we’re investing so sustainable CapEx round. I imply that $1.2 billion, $1.3 billion a yr. And then the growth CapEx, we additionally stated we’ll be just about within the vary of our historic spending someplace between $2 billion and $3 billion on a yearly foundation relying on how these initiatives come. So I feel that helps you, to do the again of the unloved calculation, no matter money move quantity you are taking.

Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gents, that concludes our time allowed for questions. I’ll flip the ground again to Mr. Vanacker for last feedback.

Peter Vanacker: Okay. Thank you, once more, for all the superb questions. And in fact, I additionally need to thank our world staff for delivering excellent worth and maximizing money conversion throughout these difficult instances. We look ahead to sharing extra updates over the approaching months with additional progress on our long-term technique. We want you all an ideal weekend and keep nicely, keep secure. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. This concludes at present’s convention name. You could disconnect your traces right now. Thank you to your participation.

This article was generated with the help of AI and reviewed by an editor. For extra info see our T&C.

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