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Earnings name: Imperial Oil reports robust Q4 outcomes, raises dividend

2024.02.02 21:39


© Reuters.

Imperial Oil Limited (NYSE:) has introduced sturdy monetary outcomes for the fourth quarter, with a web revenue of $1.365 billion and money from working actions totaling $1.799 billion. The firm skilled report manufacturing from its Kearl asset, reaching a mean of 308,000 barrels per day, and noticed vital achievements in manufacturing throughout its different main belongings.

In addition to operational successes, Imperial Oil declared a 20% dividend enhance, underscoring its dedication to shareholder returns. With a strategic give attention to value discount and capital self-discipline, the corporate is trying ahead to sustaining its constructive trajectory into 2024.

Key Takeaways

  • Imperial Oil’s web revenue for the fourth quarter stood at $1.365 billion.
  • Cash from working actions was reported at $1.799 billion.
  • Kearl asset achieved report manufacturing, averaging 308,000 barrels per day in Q4.
  • Downstream enterprise carried out strongly with refining throughput averaging 407,000 barrels per day.
  • Dividend elevated by $0.10 per share, marking a 20% rise.
  • The firm is optimistic about 2024, specializing in decreasing emissions and creating worth.

Company Outlook

  • Imperial Oil is assured in its strategic plans and operational capabilities for 2024.
  • It goals to keep up a give attention to value discount and capital self-discipline.
  • The firm is dedicated to decreasing emissions and dealing in the direction of a 30% discount in greenhouse fuel depth for its oil sands by 2030.
  • Imperial Oil has a goal of attaining web zero by 2050.

Bearish Highlights

  • No particular goal or payout ratio was talked about for the dividend technique.
  • Concerns about water consumption have been addressed, indicating ongoing efforts to handle assets successfully.

Bullish Highlights

  • The firm has persistently raised dividends for 30 years.
  • Kearl and different belongings confirmed sturdy efficiency, with Kearl anticipated to achieve a manufacturing goal of 280,000 barrels per day.
  • The Grand Rapids mission is predicted to provide 15,000 barrels per day with decrease steam manufacturing and emissions depth.

Misses

  • There was no forecast offered for the timing of future share buybacks (SIB).
  • The firm will assessment SIB plans quarterly with the board and can hold the market knowledgeable.

Q&A Highlights

  • CEO Brad Corson expressed confidence in Kearl’s manufacturing goal and potential for larger future volumes.
  • The firm is a shipper on the Trans Mountain pipeline, anticipating startup in Q2, which can present entry to larger worth markets.
  • Imperial Oil is in discussions with the federal government for assist on the Pathways mission, with vital progress on numerous mission elements.
  • Surplus money shall be returned to shareholders by means of dividends and share buybacks, with timing depending on money flows and blackout durations.
  • Differentials are anticipated to tighten with the TMX pipeline completion, with Syncrude and SSP probably settling at a premium over WTI.

Imperial Oil’s fourth-quarter efficiency highlighted its sturdy operational capabilities, with report manufacturing from Kearl and stable throughput in its refining enterprise. The firm’s give attention to value effectivity and disciplined capital funding has positioned it nicely for continued success. With a transparent technique for shareholder returns and a dedication to sustainability, Imperial Oil stays optimistic about its prospects for the approaching yr.

InvestingPro Insights

Imperial Oil Limited’s (IMO) robust fourth-quarter outcomes and dedication to shareholder returns are additional underscored by key monetary metrics and strategic strikes. According to InvestingPro knowledge, the corporate boasts a wholesome market capitalization of $691.08M USD, reflecting investor confidence in its enterprise mannequin and market place. The P/E ratio stands at a lovely 8.61, which can enchantment to worth traders in search of fairly priced earnings.

InvestingPro Tips point out that administration’s aggressive share buyback technique demonstrates a robust perception within the firm’s intrinsic worth and future prospects. Furthermore, Imperial Oil’s observe report of elevating its dividend for 28 consecutive years is a testomony to its monetary stability and dedication to delivering constant shareholder returns.

For these trying to delve deeper into the monetary well being and future outlook of Imperial Oil, InvestingPro gives further insights. Currently, there are over 10 extra InvestingPro Tips out there for subscribers, offering a complete evaluation of the corporate’s efficiency and potential funding alternatives.

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InvestingPro’s truthful worth estimate of $79.43 USD means that the corporate’s inventory could have room to develop, providing a possible upside primarily based on present market assessments. This aligns with the bullish sentiment surrounding Imperial Oil’s operational success and strategic initiatives, as highlighted within the article.

Full transcript – Imperial Oil BATS (IMO) Q4 2023:

Operator: Good day and welcome to the Imperial Oil Fourth Quarter ‘23 Earnings Call. Today’s convention is being recorded. At this time I wish to flip the convention over to Peter Shaw, VP Investor Relations. Please go forward.

Peter Shaw: Good morning everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter earnings convention name. I’m joined this morning by Imperial’s senior administration group together with Brad Corson, Chairman, President, and CEO; Dan Lyons, Senior Vice President, Finance and Administration; Sherri Evers, Senior Vice President of Sustainability, Commercial Development & Product Solutions; and Simon Younger, Senior Vice President of the Upstream. Today’s feedback embrace reference to non-GAAP monetary measures. The definitions and reconciliations of those measures may be present in Attachment 6 of our most up-to-date press launch, and can be found on our web site with a hyperlink to this convention name. Today’s feedback may additionally include forward-looking info. Any forward-looking info shouldn’t be a assure of future efficiency, and precise future efficiency and working outcomes can range materially, relying on quite a lot of components and assumptions. Forward-looking info and the danger components and assumptions are described in additional element in our fourth quarter earnings launch that we issued this morning, in addition to our most up-to-date Form 10-Okay. All of those paperwork can be found on SEDAR+, EDGAR, and on our web site. So I’d ask you to discuss with these. Brad goes to begin this morning with some opening remarks after which hand it over to Dan, who’s going to offer a monetary replace, after which Brad will present an operations replace. Once that’s achieved, we’ll comply with with a Q&A session. So with that, I’ll flip it over to Brad for his opening remarks.

Brad Corson: Thank you, Peter. Good morning everyone and welcome to our fourth quarter earnings name. I hope everybody’s doing nicely and your New Year is off to begin. Today, I’m happy to report that Imperial delivered one other very sturdy quarter, capping off a really sturdy yr for the corporate. Kearl continued to ship wonderful manufacturing outcomes and set many new data, and this efficiency drove larger Upstream volumes. At the identical time our Downstream enterprise with our structurally advantaged Canadian place continued to seize vital worth from wider crude reductions. It was a really stable quarter, and as we checked out 2024, we really feel very assured in regards to the strategic plans we have laid out, in addition to our operational capabilities to execute these plans, and our ongoing potential to generate worth for our shareholders. I hope you see a mirrored image of our confidence within the dividend enhance we have simply introduced as we speak. And reflecting on the whole yr, I’m very happy with Imperial’s efficiency throughout 2023. Specifically we proceed to have protected and dependable operations throughout all our belongings, with sturdy execution of all our deliberate turnaround exercise and continued give attention to decreasing working prices. We took motion to implement measures to handle the environmental incidents at Kearl, together with increasing our monitoring and enhancing our engagements with native communities. And all year long we maintained our capital self-discipline as we superior excessive return development initiatives, such because the Strathcona renewable diesel mission, and the Grand Rapids Phase 1 mission, each of which stay on observe. And for shareholders, we delivered one other excellent yr of returns. So over the subsequent jiffy, Dan and I’ll element the outcomes of this very sturdy quarter. So now let’s assessment the fourth quarter outcomes. Earnings for the quarter have been $1,365 million, with money from working actions of $1,799 million when excluding working capital impacts. These outcomes replicate continued sturdy operational efficiency and report manufacturing from Kearl, offset by weaker commodity costs. Full yr 2023 noticed sturdy working efficiency and profitable execution of our deliberate upkeep actions, which contributed to full yr earnings of practically $4.9 billion. Following 2022’s report earnings efficiency, that is the second highest earnings in Imperial’s historical past. We achieved whole Upstream manufacturing of 452,000 gross oil equal barrels per day within the fourth quarter, the best quarterly manufacturing in over 30 years when adjusting for the divestment of XTO Canada. Our leads to the Upstream this quarter have been underpinned by report efficiency at Kearl, which delivered 308,000 whole gross barrels per day of manufacturing, the best quarterly manufacturing within the belongings historical past. This is only one of many data we set at Kearl. I’ll discuss every asset in additional element in a couple of minutes. In the Downstream, we proceed to see sturdy working efficiency. Refining throughput averaged 407,000 barrels per day, which equates to a refinery utilization within the quarter of 94%, inclusive of the deliberate turnaround in Sarnia, which started in mid-September and was safely accomplished forward of schedule and beneath price range by the top of October. This is very notable as a result of the joint refinery and chemical plant turnaround was the most important turnaround ever undertaken by our Sarnia website when it comes to scope, workforce measurement, and whole spend. I’d like to acknowledge the laborious work of all of our groups in Sarnia for not solely delivering this distinctive final result, however doing so in a approach that ensured no person obtained damage. Our continued give attention to monetary self-discipline throughout the corporate resulted in decrease total money working prices, even past the reductions we noticed from decrease vitality prices. I’ve been very happy to see the progress our groups have made on decreasing prices, which is very notable as a result of our firm was capable of ship report manufacturing, whereas on the identical time efficiently executing considerably larger plan turnaround exercise in comparison with latest years. Our sturdy steadiness sheet allowed us to proceed to maximise shareholder returns. We accomplished our annual NCIB or Normal Course Issuer Bid on an accelerated foundation by mid-October after which efficiently executed our third SIB or Substantial Issuer Bid in two years, returning one other $1.5 billion of money to our shareholders in December. In addition, we paid $288 million in dividends within the quarter for a complete of $1.1 billion for the yr. In whole, we returned $4.9 billion of money to shareholders in 2023, our second highest yr for shareholder returns following our report $7 billion in 2022. I’m additionally happy to focus on that this morning we introduced a dividend enhance of $0.10 per share or 20%, payable on April 1, which positions us for our thirtieth consecutive yr of dividend will increase. A dependable and rising dividend is the cornerstone of our dedication to ship industry-leading returns to shareholders, and because the starting of 2021 we’ve practically tripled our quarterly dividend. With that, I’ll move issues over to Dan.

Dan Lyons: Thanks Brad. Starting with monetary outcomes for the complete yr, we recorded web revenue of $4.889 billion, a lower of $2.451 billion from 2022, reflecting decrease realizations within the Upstream, decrease margins within the Downstream, larger turnaround exercise, and the absence of the achieve realized on the sale of XTO in 2022. Looking on the fourth quarter, we recorded web revenue of $1.365 billion, down about $360 million from the fourth quarter of 2022. The lower is primarily pushed by decrease refining margins in our Downstream enterprise. Moving to a sequential quarter comparability, our fourth quarter web revenue of $1.365 billion is down about $240 million from the third quarter, reflecting weaker bitumen realizations within the Upstream and decrease Downstream margins. Looking at every enterprise line, Upstream earnings of $770 million are down about $258 million from the third quarter, primarily pushed by decrease bitumen realizations partly offset by larger volumes. Downstream’s earnings of $595 million are up $9 million from the third quarter, primarily reflecting larger volumes, publish deliberate turnaround actions at Sarnia Refinery, partly offset by weaker refining margins. Finally, our chemical enterprise generated earnings of $17 million down $6 million from the third quarter, reflecting decrease volumes from the Sarnia fuel cracker turnaround that was accomplished in October. Moving on to money circulation, within the fourth quarter, we generated about $1.3 billion in money flows from working actions, excluding work and capital results of about $500 million, money circulation from working actions for the fourth quarter was about $1.8 billion, down about $150 million from the third quarter. Full-year money flows from working actions have been $3.7 billion. As you’ll recall, we made a $2.1 billion revenue tax catch-up cost within the first quarter of 2023, driving an unfavorable working capital impression. Full-year money flows from working actions, excluding working capital have been about $6.4 billion, down about $2.6 billion from 2022, according to earnings. We ended the quarter with about $900 million of money available. Now discussing CapEx, capital expenditures totaled $469 million within the fourth quarter and $1.778 billion for the yr, simply over our full-year steerage of $1.7 billion. The further spend was primarily attributable to elevated capitalized curiosity, as rates of interest elevated considerably over the course of the yr. In the Upstream, fourth-quarter spending centered on smaller initiatives to maintain and develop manufacturing at Kearl, Cold Lake and Syncrude, in addition to progressing the In-Pit Tailings Project at Kearl, and the SA-SAGD Grand Rapids Project at Cold Lake. In the Downstream, fourth-quarter spending primarily included progressing a renewable diesel mission at Strathcona. Shifting to shareholder distributions, we continued to reveal our long-standing dedication to ship industry-leading returns to shareholders, a dependable and rising given is the inspiration of our money distribution technique. And as Brad already famous, this morning we declared a first-quarter dividend of $0.60 per share, payable in April, a rise of 20% or $0.10 per share in comparison with our fourth-quarter dividend. In addition to our dividend within the fourth quarter, we accomplished our most up-to-date accelerated NCIB program with purchases of about $950 million in October, and we accomplished a considerable issuer bid in December, repurchasing about $1.5 billion in excellent shares. In whole, all through the course of the yr we accomplished shareholder returns of $4.9 billion, the second highest in our firm historical past, together with $1.1 billion in dividends and whole share repurchases of $3.8 billion. Our whole share repurchases over the yr characterize over 48 million shares and about 8.3% of our excellent shares. Now, I’ll flip it again to Brad to debate our operational efficiency.

Brad Corson: Thanks Dan. Upstream manufacturing for the quarter averaged 452,000 oil equal barrels per day, which is up 29,000 barrels per day versus the third quarter and up 11,000 barrels per day versus the fourth quarter of 2022. As I discussed earlier, that is the best quarterly manufacturing in over 30 years when adjusting for the divestment of XTO Canada. This larger manufacturing for the quarter was pushed by stronger efficiency throughout all three main belongings, and within the quarter, we noticed WTI costs soften and the WTI to WCS differential widen. As we begin the New Year, we’ve seen some tightening of the differentials and we’d anticipate to see additional tightening with the completion of TMX within the coming months. So now let’s transfer on and discuss particularly about Kearl. Kearl’s manufacturing within the fourth quarter averaged 308,000 barrels per day gross, which was up 13,000 barrels per day versus the third quarter and up 24,000 barrels per day from the fourth quarter of 2022. This represents one of the best ever quarterly efficiency at Kearl, surpassing the earlier report, which we set simply final quarter. And the data at Kearl do not cease there. Kearl additionally achieved report full yr manufacturing of 270,000 barrels per day, and report second half manufacturing of 301,000 barrels per day, and report December manufacturing of 321,000 barrels per day, and report single day manufacturing of 363,000 barrels per day on December 25. How about that for a Christmas current and a string of data? I’m so happy with the Kearl group and what they’ve been capable of obtain. It’s actually been an impressive yr for Kearl, which supplies a stable basis to proceed driving low value manufacturing development and attaining our goal of 280,000 barrels per day in 2024. And now turning to Kearl money working prices, which can also be one other nice story. Unit money working prices within the quarter have been $17.94 U.S. per barrel, which represents a lower of over $2 U.S. per barrel versus the third quarter, due primarily to the sturdy manufacturing and ongoing give attention to operational efficiencies. We additionally noticed a lower of about $9 U.S. per barrel versus the fourth quarter of 2022. And for the complete yr, unit money working prices at Kearl are simply over $22 U.S. per barrel, which is $6.60 U.S. per barrel, decrease than 2022 or roughly $4.50 U.S. per barrel decrease when normalizing for vitality prices and ForEx. Going ahead, we’re centered on additional unit prices reductions as we develop volumes and obtain additional working efficiencies. So, turning now to Cold Lake. Cold Lake manufacturing for the fourth quarter averaged 139,000 barrels per day, which was 11,000 barrels per day larger than the third quarter and a pair of,000 barrels per day decrease than the fourth quarter of 2022. Higher fourth quarter manufacturing was primarily pushed by the absence of the deliberate Navier [ph] turnaround accomplished within the third quarter, in addition to steam cycle timing. And transferring to the Grand Rapids Phase 1 Project, I’m happy to share that we efficiently begin steam injection on December 1, delivering on our dedication to speed up the mission startup by one yr to yr finish 2023. The steam circulation part is predicted to final till the top of the primary quarter of this yr, after which manufacturing will begin to ramp up over a interval of a number of months. Once absolutely up and operating, Phase 1 of the mission is predicted to ship worthwhile manufacturing of roughly 15,000 barrels per day and assist our emissions discount technique. By utilizing SA-SAGD know-how, Grand Rapids manufacturing is predicted to realize an emissions depth that’s as much as 40% decrease in comparison with current cyclic steam know-how in-use as we speak. This mission is a vital milestone for us on our journey to cut back emissions at Cold Lake by persevering with to deploy subsequent era solvent restoration know-how. I’d additionally wish to take the chance to offer a quick replace on our Leming redevelopment mission. The drilling of all wells was accomplished in 2023, and our focus by means of 2024 is on nicely completions and facility development. Startup is deliberate for 2025, with the mission anticipated to common about 9,000 barrels per day of manufacturing at peak. Leming will use SAGD know-how, and much like Grand Rapids, we anticipate to have the ability to obtain an emissions depth that’s as much as 35% decrease than current cyclic steam know-how. And now just a few feedback on Syncrude. Imperial share of Syncrude manufacturing for the quarter averaged 85,000 barrels per day, which is up 10,000 barrels per day versus the third quarter, and down 2,000 barrels per day versus the fourth quarter of 2022. Higher manufacturing within the fourth quarter was because of early completion of the autumn plan turnaround by a few week, in addition to favorable mining situations and powerful upgrader utilization. Throughout 2023, the interconnect pipeline continued so as to add worth by enabling incremental manufacturing of Syncrude Suite Premium from imported bitumen, serving to to keep up excessive upgrader utilization charges and ensuing within the highest ever four-year shipments of SSP within the three way partnership’s historical past. So now let’s transfer on and discuss in regards to the Downstream. In the fourth quarter, we refined a mean of 407,000 barrels per day, which was down 9,000 barrels a day versus the third quarter, and down 26,000 barrels per day versus the fourth quarter of 2022, reflecting a utilization of 94%. As I famous in my opening remarks, we accomplished the most important turnaround in Sarnia website historical past on the finish of October, beneath price range and forward of schedule, and all three of our refineries delivered very excessive utilization within the closing months of the yr. In addition to excessive utilization, the refining enterprise benefited from advantaged crude pricing throughout heavies, lights, and synthetics contributing the sturdy worth seize within the quarter. For the complete yr, our refineries achieved 94% utilization, which was the excessive finish of our annual steerage, and we noticed all our refineries obtain numerous full-year manufacturing data, together with report gasoline, jet and distillate manufacturing at Sarnia, report diesel manufacturing at Nanticoke, and report paving asphalt manufacturing at Strathcona, amongst many different manufacturing and course of data. At our Strathcona refinery, we proceed to advance our renewable diesel mission, and as we end the yr, a lot of the underground infrastructure has been accomplished, and the above-ground tankage can also be nearing completion at this level. We proceed to progress in the direction of a deliberate startup in 2025. Petroleum product gross sales within the quarter have been 476,000 barrels per day, which is down 2,000 barrels per day versus the third quarter, and down 11,000 barrels per day versus the fourth quarter of 2022. We proceed to see gasoline demand round 99% to 95% of historic ranges, and jet at about 110% of historic ranges. Specifically, jet demand was supported by sturdy gross sales into Toronto’s Pearson Airport, and on diesel, demand within the quarter was between 85% to 90%. Diesel crack spreads remained comparatively sturdy within the fourth quarter, supported by low inventories, whereas gasoline cracks have been extra subdued. While total crack spreads have been decrease quarter over quarter, as Dan talked about, our Canadian-based refinery community enhanced total product margins by means of the seize of crude reductions with entry to wider differentials that affected all crude grades in Western Canada. Currently we proceed to see regular demand for our refined merchandise and total refinery margins stay robust. And that brings us to Chemicals. The enterprise delivered $17 million in earnings within the fourth quarter, which was down $6 million versus the third quarter and down $24 million versus the fourth quarter in 2023 – I’m sorry, 2022. The decrease earnings have been pushed by the fuel cracker turnaround that occurred between mid-September and the top of October, in addition to a softer margin surroundings. Despite these pressures, our chemical enterprise nonetheless delivered stable full-year earnings of $164 million. And lastly, I’d like to focus on the publication of our Annual Sustainability Report. To achieve success in as we speak’s world, vitality suppliers should discover methods to steadiness vitality safety, affordability, and environmental safety, whereas capturing alternatives within the vitality transition. At Imperial, this consists of our dedication to advancing our sustainability priorities, together with creating pathways in assist of a web zero future, enabling financial reconciliation and significant partnerships with indigenous communities, defending water assets and selling biodiversity, and cultivating a workforce the place everybody’s views are valued and individuals are ready for tomorrow. The sustainability report supplies an replace on our progress in the direction of every of those priorities. So to rapidly wrap up, this was one other very sturdy quarter to complete one other very sturdy yr, underpinned by dependable operations throughout our built-in enterprise mannequin. We proceed to ship on our commitments and achieved our steerage for the complete yr. As we glance forward in 2024, I’m optimistic and enthusiastic about delivering one other very sturdy yr. As you may see from the completion of the accelerated NCIB, in addition to our profitable SIB, accomplished December, and now the announcement as we speak of one other materials dividend enhance. Our dedication to shareholder returns stays a high precedence for us. We’re additionally dedicated to delivering on our plans to cut back emissions and generate worth. I’m excited as we close to first manufacturing from Grand Rapids and with the progress we’re making with our Strathcona Renewable Diesel Project. I sit up for persevering with to convey you updates on these engaging alternatives as we proceed to give attention to maximizing the worth of our current companies, whereas on the identical time responding to the altering wants of our prospects and communities. So as all the time, I’d wish to thanks as soon as once more on your continued curiosity and assist. And now we’ll transfer to the Q&A session, so I’ll move it again to Peter. Thank you.

Peter Shaw: Thank you, Brad. As all the time, we would recognize it should you may restrict your self to 1 query plus a follow-up, in order that we are able to get to as many questions as attainable. So with that, operator, may you please open up the cellphone line for questions?

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Your first query comes from the road of Manav Gupta with UBS. Please go forward.

Manav Gupta: Good morning, guys. Congrats on a really sturdy outcome. I’m truly going to begin with Downstream. When I have a look at your company steerage, it seems you’ve got insignificant quantity of downtime within the first quarter and a really small quantity of downtime within the second quarter. And if you look throughout the border, we’ve vital quantity of downtime on this U.S. refining system for the subsequent three to 4 months. So I’m making an attempt to know if you’re operating laborious and cracks are good, and throughout the border individuals are not operating laborious, does that set you up extraordinarily nicely for the primary half of 2024 because it pertains to refining?

Brad Corson: Yeah, thanks for the query, Manav. Yeah, definitely as we seemed to the primary quarter, the primary half of the yr, we’re inspired by all the key fundamentals, together with those that you just talked about. Having accomplished a good quantity of upkeep actions this final yr, we really feel we’re nicely positioned. As we transfer into this yr, our enterprise as you already know is nicely built-in. We’re nicely linked to the market with sturdy infrastructure and all that positions us to take full benefit full benefit of worth feedstocks decrease crude costs. We anticipate excessive reliability. We anticipate to seize excessive worth product margins available in the market. Put all that collectively and it is a sturdy formulation for achievement. So, thanks for that query.

Manav Gupta: Perfect. My fast follow-up on Kearl and congrats on getting that value beneath 20. You promise folks you may do it and the outcomes are very spectacular. My query right here is, your steerage for 2024 is 275,000 to 285,000. Based on the sort of data you talked about earlier within the name, ought to we naturally consider this as extra of a 285,000 versus the 275,000. So simply making an attempt to know if high finish of steerage is making extra sense given the data you’re setting at Kearl.

Brad Corson: Well, thanks on your confidence in us and such as you, I’ve nice confidence within the Kearl group and as famous with so many data, they proceed to outperform and excel. And that positions us fairly nicely to ship on, what’s been a long-term goal and dedication round 280,000 barrels a day. So, I’ve excessive confidence that can obtain 280,000 barrels a day. Certainly there may be the potential that we are going to obtain extra, and that is mirrored in within the larger finish of our steerage, and so we’re working in the direction of that day by day. We’re early within the yr, however I’ll additionally let you know we’re off to begin in January. So let’s proceed to ship sturdy outcomes, we’ll proceed to speak in regards to the potential for even larger volumes, not simply on this yr, however as we glance to the long run. Thank you.

Manav Gupta: Thank you. Thank you a lot for taking my questions.

Operator: Your subsequent query comes from the road of Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets. Please go forward.

Greg Pardy: Thanks. Hey, I imply like nice outcomes, once more, and it is changing into – simply persistently you are placing up large numbers throughout the board. I wished to dig in somewhat bit Brad, to the report set within the fourth quarter after which in December. And I’m making an attempt to higher – I need to perceive what have been the components that supported that. I imply clearly we all know climate situations have been extraordinarily heat, at the very least from what I perceive and so forth. So we have seen large numbers elsewhere. What was form of the particular sauce perhaps of attending to the 363 or the 321 in December?

Brad Corson: Yeah, Greg, thanks. Thanks for acknowledging our tremendous sturdy outcomes and the consistency of these outcomes, and thanks on your query on Kearl. In phrases of secret sauce, I feel it actually comes extra right down to numerous fundamentals. We have continued to enhance the reliability of that operation for a number of months and even years now. We proceed to give attention to all the contributing components to maximise manufacturing, which go all the way in which again to mine efficiency, the productiveness within the mine, definitely climate was a constructive issue for us because it permits sort of full productiveness within the mine. Certainly our autonomous haul fleet is contributing to that. We benefit from mining some prime quality ore grade. And then so all that ensures the entrance finish is absolutely loaded after which we’re managing that by means of the crushers after which after we get to the plant, we’re seeing very excessive reliability there. So it is a mixture of numerous components. And truly if there’s a secret sauce, I’d let you know it is our folks at Kearl which might be hyper centered on delivering these form of outcomes and they’re very excited and motivated to proceed to set these data. They are extraordinarily happy with what they’re doing there and we’re fairly happy with them.

Greg Pardy: Okay, thanks for that, Brad. The second one is, I’ve requested it earlier than, however I feel it was thought-about proprietary. But I’m simply curious, are you a shipper on Trans Mountain? And perhaps if the reply is ‘we’re not telling you,’ are you able to maybe simply sort of stroll us by means of the way you see form of TMX impacting the enterprise high to backside?

Brad Corson: Yeah, thanks for the query. I do not assume we view it as proprietary, whether or not we’re a shipper or not. I’m pleased to let you know that we’re a shipper on TMX. What’s usually considered as proprietary is the volumes that we plan to ship, when it comes to whole quantity cut up between crude and merchandise. So I will not get into these particulars with you. I’ll let you know although, that relative to different shippers, we’re comparatively minor when it comes to the capability reservations that we have made on the system. We are fairly excited in regards to the startup of TMX, which we view as imminent and focusing on someday within the second quarter. Of course, there was latest information, the start of this week about some delays, however we’re nonetheless very optimistic that that system will begin up within the second quarter. And when it begins up, definitely it provides us, as an organization, further capability for crude volumes, which once more shouldn’t be vital for us. It provides us further capability for merchandise, which is extra vital for us, perhaps not in quantity, however simply extra potential to entry some larger worth markets with environment friendly transportation. But extra importantly is the broader impression. The startup of TMX can have on the {industry}, offering considerably further capability for egress out of the basin. And that can have, we imagine as I commented, we imagine that can end in a tightening of the WCS differential, and can place larger worth on WCS crews, which after all we’re a serious producer. So the most important profit for us shouldn’t be the person barrels we ship, however our view of the impression it should have on our crude worth. We proceed to see most worth, primarily delivery our crude into the mid-continent, into the Gulf Coast and so we’ll proceed to maneuver most of our barrels in that path. But all the time the place are the best worth markets and ensuring we’re positioned to seize these over the long-term, and that is the place having optionality to go west, go south, places us in a terrific place. Thanks for the query.

Greg Pardy: Thanks very a lot. Yeah, thanks Brad.

Operator: And our subsequent query comes from the road of Dennis Fong with CIBC World Markets. Please go forward.

Dennis Fong: Hi. Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. First off, simply wished to reiterate what Greg stated, and congrats on a really sturdy quarter, and continued sturdy operations from Kearl. My first query right here is simply round autonomous haul. You indicated final quarter that you just had accomplished your, the set up and the startup of autonomous operations at Kearl. I simply hoped to select your charge on any potential takeaways that you have seen now that you’ve got over 1 / 4 of run time from the fleet and the place you assume you’re when it comes to additional optimization.

Brad Corson: Yeah, thanks for the query. I imply, we’re fairly excited in regards to the worth that that is bringing to our enterprise. And as you famous, we’ve now 100% autonomous within the mine with our heavy haul vans, whole of 81 vans, and we’re seeing sort of that transition, using autonomous or driverless vans as delivering all the worth that we anticipated when it comes to decrease unit working prices by round a greenback per barrel. We see elevated security and cut back security threat due to fewer human machine interfaces, and we’re seeing elevated productiveness as nicely. And so, there isn’t a doubt that having that autonomous haul fleet has contributed materially to our potential to realize these report volumes, in addition to vital enchancment in working prices. And we’re nonetheless, I feel, sort of realizing the complete potential of that, as a result of it is solely been within the final quarter or in order that we have accomplished that full conversion. And now on the identical time, we’re additionally in search of, nicely, the place can we increase this autonomous idea past simply the heavy haul vans. And so we’ve numerous work underway as to the place else we are able to leverage this to additional enhance productiveness, cut back prices, enhance security. And I feel that’ll be a key aspect of our dialogue after we get to our Investor Day later this yr, to actually discuss sort of the potential that this know-how is bringing and the way we are able to increase it additional.

Dennis Fong: Great, I recognize the colour there. My second query sort of persevering with on with Kearl there may be, you have proven very sturdy manufacturing and you’ve got mentioned alternatives to probably constantly or at the very least common perhaps 300,000 barrels a day someday sooner or later. Can you discuss in the direction of a few of the secondary restoration initiatives, in addition to the mine optimization alternatives that assist sort of drive you to that 300,000 barrels a day and the place are you at with respect to the engineering and the event of these subsequent steps? Thanks.

Brad Corson: Yeah, thanks for the query. We are very centered first on attending to 280,000 barrels per day. That’s job primary with regards to volumes at Kearl. We’ve simply delivered our highest annual volumes at Kearl with 270, now we obtained to get to 280, after which we’ll get to 300. So it is sort of one step at a time. But this evolution takes a number of years of planning, engineering, in some case, funding. So we’re progressing steps to get us to 300,000 barrels a day. I plan for us to speak extra particularly about what that roadmap appears to be like like when we’ve our Investor Day. But definitely we’re centered on what are the subsequent steps in reliability, what are the subsequent steps in optimizations round turnaround durations. We’re further steps in deep bottlenecking, our processing amenities, we’re how can we extract much more bitumen out of all the ore that we extract by means of additional processing, after all sands tailing and so it’s a entire suite of actions. We’ve talked about floatation column cells. That particular mission we’ve detailed engineering nicely superior. We’re focusing on a startup in 2026. It’ll be a serious contributor to the subsequent step after 280 and transferring us in the direction of 300. So rather a lot happening there and I’m actually enthusiastic about it. Because once more, I feel if you have a look at what we have achieved within the second half of the yr, what we have achieved within the fourth quarter, definitely month-to-month and each day data, it continues to reveal simply the potential that we’ve with this asset. Now once more, the problem is to hyperlink collectively all of these data over a whole yr, proper. And a big driver nonetheless in our total manufacturing for the yr is the annual turnaround. And so, we’ve to not solely obtain these form of data, however then we’ve to offset sort of any deliberate upkeep, turnaround or different plan upkeep over the course of the yr. But I’ve confidence we’ll get there. So thanks for that query.

Dennis Fong: No, I recognize it. I’ll flip it again.

Operator: Your subsequent query comes from the road of Doug Leggate with Bank of America. Please go forward.

Doug Leggate: Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Good morning, Brad. I do not know should you’ve seemed to your share worth this morning, however this dividend bump, we proceed to imagine that may be a enormous mechanism for market recognition of worth, so congratulations on that call. My query is, the place do you assume your dividend burden must be to have a aggressive yield versus your friends?

Brad Corson: Yeah, thanks on your — first, your recognition of our dividend technique, the impression it is having. And sure, I can guarantee you I’ve checked out my share worth as we speak. I have a look at it day by day as a large facet [ph], and we’re fairly happy with the market receptivity to the board’s resolution to boost our dividend. And perhaps I’ll give Dan an opportunity to make some feedback about our dividend technique. But first, I feel you may see the consistency of our technique with persevering with to boost that dividend now for 30 years. And you may see the materiality of these will increase for the previous couple of years, clearly underpinned by our sturdy efficiency. Dan, discuss in regards to the future.

Dan Lyons: Yeah, hey Doug. Thanks for acknowledging the dividend. I do know you are a dividend development lover from our prior conversations, so we all the time take heed to you. But, as we have stated, the dividend, a dependable and rising dividend, and aggressive dividend is form of the inspiration of our shareholder return technique. And should you look over within the final variety of years, our compound annual development charge could be very aggressive and above most of our friends. So we proceed to be centered on rising our dividend, however for us it is actually essential that it is sustainable. And in order we glance out into the long run and have a look at comparatively conservative assumptions, we have a look at that sort of evaluation. We have a look at our rivals are doing and that drives our suggestions to the board and in the end the board’s actions. So it is definitely an space of focus for us. We’re glad we’re delivering that sort of development to the market. But I am unable to say there is a specific goal or payout ratio or burden degree that we’re precisely focusing on. Oddly, it is dynamic, however we glance forward and we – and our focus is on dependable and rising and ensuring we’re by no means in a scenario the place we’ve to chop it.

Doug Leggate: Thank you for the solutions, guys. I hope that the operator does not take this as my second query. It’s extra of a clarification level. What do you assume your dividend breakeven is true now? I do have a separate follow-up query?

Dan Lyons: Yeah, nicely we are saying with sustaining capital and our dividend, we’re about $35, that is WTI, U.S. {dollars}, in order that’s the place we’re. So a reasonably great spot I might say. And leaves open room for development over time.

Doug Leggate: Perfect. Thank you. My follow-up is definitely on Kearl, however a barely completely different query. You’re the one – I feel I’m right in saying this. You’re the one main mining mission left that is nonetheless pre-royalty. Given all of the transferring elements, probably the truth that you’re out-performing clearly, and there was clearly some development choices down the highway. To the extent you may give any visibility, how lengthy do you anticipate to remain pre-royalty? We’ve obtained you thru the top of the last decade. I’m curious should you can provide any shade on that. I’m going to depart it there. Thank you.

Brad Corson: Yeah. Thanks for the remark, Doug. I’ll defer that one to Den as nicely.

A – Dan Lyons: Yeah, clearly it will depend on costs Doug. But our outlook is to be pre-royalty, and I feel, we might – the top of the last decade or much more might be very cheap. But it’s totally delicate to costs. If costs get actually excessive, we would get there sooner. But for the foreseeable future, in cheap eventualities, I feel we’ll – we’ll proceed to be pre-royalty, which is a big profit for us on a money circulation foundation for positive.

Doug Leggate: Absolutely. Well guys, thanks for taking my questions and congrats on nailing this dividend story.

Brad Corson: Thanks, Doug.

Operator: Your subsequent query comes from the road of Menno Hulshof with TD Securities. Go forward.

Menno Hulshof: Thanks everybody and good morning. Maybe I’ll simply begin with a query on Grand Rapids, Phase 1, which after all is solvent-assisted. You did, Brad, contact on the emissions discount in your ready feedback. But are you able to simply elaborate on a few of the KPIs for this mission, together with SORs, OpEx, and the way a lot solvent is definitely getting recycled by means of the system? And then as a follow-up to that, how do you — how a lot do you assume you may scale up solvent-assisted over time?

Brad Corson: Yeah, thanks for the query Menno. I do not essentially have these particulars at my fingertips on these metrics for Grand Rapids. I’ll perhaps defer to Simon, who’s right here beside me to see if he has these. And if he does not, we could must follow-up with you offline on these. But I’ll say that from a really macro standpoint, what’s most necessary is we do anticipate to ship 15,000 barrels a day from this asset. It’s very excessive return economically. By its design it depends on decrease steam manufacturing, which is extra financial for us, and decrease emissions depth. So these are the macros which might be most necessary for the mission and the way it matches into our total technique to extend manufacturing, cut back working prices, cut back greenhouse fuel emission depth. But now I’ll see if Simon has any of these extra particulars he can share with you.

Simon Younger: Yes, no worries Brad. I can take a little bit of a run at a few of these. I imply, as Brad shared, when it comes to the greenhouse fuel depth for Grand Rapids, Phase 1, after we began up, we anticipate it to be at the very least 40% decrease than our heritage CSS course of. If you in contrast it although to set typical SAGD with the addition of SA, the solvent-assisted, relying on how we evolve that and optimize that by means of time, take into consideration that as wherever from a form of a ten% to a 20% enchancment over typical SAGD by advantage of the solvent-addition. So that may be a key form of KPI as you have been asking about. Another one in every of course is the solvent restoration, which can solely be recognized over time and thru expertise, once more, as we optimize the operation. But definitely we’re numbers north of 85% and even 90% on the solvent restoration shall be a key KPI. You talked about unit prices. I feel should you look throughout {industry}, on the best SAGD operations, form of as little as $10 a barrel, I’d definitely anticipate us to be focusing on that and even bettering on that, once more, aided by the advantage of the solvent-assisted, the solvent addition to the SAGD course of, which by the way in which, we piloted for a number of years at Cold Lake, which gave us the boldness to proceed with a full scale funding at Grand Rapids. And then I feel one other a part of your query was form of what is the operating room? And I might say it is substantial. I imply, we’re beginning with our first pad right here. It’s obtained 21 nicely pairs. We’re at present steaming, and that is throughout two wings. We’re at present steaming a kind of. But we’ve – there’s operating room. If this, if the Grand Rapids useful resource improvement proves profitable, we have operating room of a number of extra pads, as much as as many as 10 further pads. So it is actually thrilling, and the entire group is tremendous excited to see throughout this primary quarter of this yr how we convey that new asset on-line.

Menno Hulshof: Terrific. I recognize the element. And for my second query, I’m simply going to follow-up on Dennis’s and your feedback on autonomous haul, and I’m in all probability getting a bit forward of issues, however is conversion of the dozer fleet nonetheless within the playing cards, and to the extent that it’s, how would that evaluate when it comes to scale with what you have achieved up to now within the truck facet of issues, and any preliminary excessive degree ideas on timing and upside could be useful as nicely.

Brad Corson: Yeah, thanks for that query. I imply, it’s an instance of the subsequent evolution of autonomous or driverless that we’re , and we’re actively piloting driverless dozers. So it is actually thrilling. We see enormous advantages to that throughout the entire vary of concerns I discussed earlier, beginning first with security, in addition to value or exercise. We’re very early in that pilot check work, so I feel it is untimely for me to quantify it, however our early expertise with our pilot work could be very encouraging. So we’re persevering with to progress that work, and once more, I feel we’ll be in a greater place to speak about that at Investor Day. And I’ll simply remind you that, the evolution of the autonomous hull vans at Kearl took a number of years. And so I might anticipate, as we have a look at increasing that know-how and method to different items of apparatus, it takes time, as a result of we clearly need to make it possible for not solely we get the complete profit, however that we’re under no circumstances compromising the protection of the operation. So keep tuned, extra to come back.

Menno Hulshof: Thanks, Brad. I’ll flip it again. Thanks.

Brad Corson: Thank you.

Operator: Your subsequent query comes from the road of Patrick O’Rourke with ATB Capital Markets. Please go forward.

Patrick O’Rourke: Oh, hey guys. Good morning. Congratulations on the dividend enhance, and a terrific quarter. You’ve clearly unpacked rather a lot between the ready remarks and numerous the very detailed questions we have had. So maybe this primary query goes somewhat bit off the board, however so we’re seeing industrial, we’re in drought situations in Western Canada, and we’re beginning to see industrial water use restrictions which might be coming about. Are there form of any business dangers to your enterprise, and the way are you making ready for these going ahead right here in 2024?

Brad Corson: Yeah, thanks for the query. And I imply you are proper, it is not one thing we perhaps usually discuss or get questions on, nevertheless it’s not off the board for us, as a result of we take water consumption very severely in all of our operations. We have an extended historical past of constant to cut back water consumption, and in order that’s a precedence for us. In truth, if you have a look at each Kearl and Cold Lake, our two main water customers, these groups have made distinctive progress in the direction of decreasing water utilization within the vary of 30% to 40% reductions since 2020, and that comes by means of the results of elevated recycling, in addition to decreased consumption and so I’m fairly happy with that. I feel, as we glance to threat of drought and impacts that has on water provide, we will proceed to must handle that fastidiously. For Kearl, our main supply of water, after all is the Athabasca River. We have agreements in place for the implications of decreased water availability and the way we handle that. And equally with Cold Lake, which is the supply, main supply of our water for our Cold Lake operations. We have agreements in place there for low water ranges. And so I’ve no considerations with respect to our operations, however it’s one thing we handle fairly fastidiously and one thing we’re very diligent about. And clearly, extra broadly, we need to make sure that we’re contributing in a constructive solution to sustainability, with regards to water use, particularly in drought situations.

Patrick O’Rourke: Okay, nice. And then my second query right here, there isn’t any form of formal replace on Pathways within the launch, though you probably did contact on it somewhat bit. Are you capable of present a little bit of an replace on the mission the place you stand right here? Because I feel from yourselves and a few of the companions, there had been dialogue about, particularly with the lengthy lead gadgets being on fairly brief cycle when it comes to timeframes, when it comes to assembly choices in an effort to get the mission on and meet a few of the 2030 timeframes which have been in place.

Brad Corson: Yeah, thanks. Thanks for the query. I’m glad I’ve a possibility to touch upon Pathways, as a result of there may be numerous exercise underway, and it typically does not get publicized, does not get perhaps exterior recognition, however perhaps simply summarize it a bit. I might characterize this as two major sort of streams of labor exercise. The first is sort of the continuing engagement with the federal government, each federal and provincial, concerning all the fiscal assist and regulatory certainty that’s required to underpin these vital investments and so these discussions proceed. You’re clearly conscious of the 50% funding tax credit score supplied by the federal authorities. More just lately, the Alberta province has introduced a 12% assist for initiatives like this. And there’s – the discussions are persevering with round additional assist that is wanted and all the main points that go round that. But equally necessary is one other large work stream round progressing the bodily elements of the mission. So there’s vital engineering and design work underway, each concerning the primary pipeline, in addition to particular person corporations are engaged on their very own seize initiatives, which all will feed into that pipeline. We’re engaged on environmental discipline work and research which might be integral to the allowing of the pipeline. There’s vital neighborhood engagement and indigenous session underway. The entrance finish engineering and design, the feed work, as we discuss with it, for the 400 kilometer CO2 pipeline is now greater than 50% full. That positions us to in the end order the road pipe, as soon as we’ve all of the fiscal assist in place from the federal government. And we’re additionally engaged on a serious sort of regulatory software associated to sort of the entire CO2 transportation community, but in addition the storage hub, and that is an necessary a part of this mission as nicely, so numerous actions underway. Our Pathways group, together with the CEOs are assembly on a weekly foundation. Several elements of the mission, they’re assembly a number of occasions every week on it. So we’re making progress, and all of that is per a multi-year mission of unprecedented scale. So these items take time, however we’re intensely centered on delivering this mission, which is a key enabler to attaining web zero by 2050. And all of our member corporations have their very own interim targets for Imperial, along with web zero. We’ve additionally introduced a goal of 30% discount in greenhouse fuel depth for our oil sands by 2030. So we’re all centered on these interim targets as nicely. So thanks for that query and actually sort of a shout out to the Pathways group that’s doing numerous work on this area.

Patrick O’Rourke: Okay, nice. Thanks very a lot.

Operator: Your subsequent query comes from the road of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please go forward.

Neil Mehta: Yeah. I’d add my congrats on the dividend bump and the sturdy outcomes as nicely. I suppose Brad, perhaps I need to discuss to you in regards to the return of capital through the SIB. You’ve been fairly constant about doing that during the last couple of years when you’ve got extra money. Just how are you excited about the timing of that? And primarily based on what we see within the ahead curve, is it truthful to imagine that is extra doubtless a again half occasion than a entrance half occasion?

Brad Corson: Yeah, thanks. Thanks for the query. As we have talked on many calls and different events, returning surplus money to our shareholders is core to our technique. It’s a key precedence for us. And that return of money begins with the dividend and guaranteeing that that’s not simply dependable, but in addition rising. And clearly you have seen the choice we have taken on that as we speak. And then, traditionally, we’ve turned subsequent to the NCIB. But after all, for that we’re restricted to five% per yr share buybacks. But we do see that as a really environment friendly and advantaged solution to return money to shareholders. So that is why that has been sort of our subsequent go-to and we have achieved NCIBs persistently for a few years now. And then after all, within the final couple of years, we have had additional surplus money past what’s wanted to assist the dividend program and the NCIB program. So we have turned to SIBs. The resolution on timing for the SIB and magnitude of the SIB up to now has been very a lot pushed by each of our precise and projected money flows, in addition to the place we’re with the NCIB. Because once more, we’ve to do – we need to try this preferentially, and we won’t be doing them each on the identical time. And then on high of that, to execute an SIB, there are prescriptive blackout durations that we’ve to work round. So all of these issues issue into our resolution as to after we will do – when and if we’ll do an SIB. So I’m not going to forecast at this level, the timing of a future SIB. But we’ll be all these components. We’ll be reviewing these with the board on a quarterly foundation, and we’ll definitely be persevering with to debate the standing of these plans with the market. And perhaps I’ll simply see if Dan has the rest so as to add to that.

Dan Lyons: No. Well stated, Brad. And after all Neil, it actually will depend on costs, proper. Commodity costs, we assume can have continued sturdy operations. So whether or not we’ve surplus money, above and past the NCIB goes to be pushed by commodity costs primarily. So to the extent we generate surplus money, our dedication is to return it to shareholders in a well timed approach. So we’ll simply must see how issues play out over the yr. I feel that is the place we’re at.

Neil Mehta: Yeah, that is sensible, Dan. And thanks, Brad. And only a follow-up is simply your perspective on the differentials. I do know within the ready remarks you talked somewhat bit about when TMX comes on-line, you anticipate a few of these differentials will tighten up. But perhaps you might discuss each, the outlook for WCS, but in addition the outlook for Syncrude and Edmonton combine suite, as a result of these gentle crude diffs have been somewhat softer than many would have anticipated.

Brad Corson: Yeah, thanks for the remark. And I all the time need to keep away from forecasting an excessive amount of round differentials, as a result of there are simply so many components that come into play. I made the remark round TMX, as a result of there may be sort of a serious structural shift that is about to happen. When you convey that a lot further capability onto the system, that I feel can have a structural impression on heavies. I feel there shall be, if you’ll, sort of a carryover impression on gentle differentials as nicely, and so we’ll see doubtless some tightening of these as nicely. Of course, in our case, we’re nicely built-in throughout the Upstream and the Downstream. So the monetary implications of that’s muted, if you’ll, in our firm relative to others. When we see extraordinarily sturdy pricing within the Upstream, definitely there is a little bit of a success within the Downstream. But the net-net of that’s constructive for us, and we’d anticipate that to proceed. And I suppose the identical with Syncrude and SSP. It’s clearly a bit uncommon that that is at present buying and selling at a reduction to WTI. It usually trades extra at a premium. And I feel long term, there’s just a few brief time period issues available in the market I feel which might be driving that long term. I feel we might anticipate it to settle in at a premium over WTI prefer it’s been traditionally. So that is in all probability essentially the most I may say, sort of once more, given the conventional volatility and uncertainty available in the market.

Neil Mehta: Yeah, that is nice. Thanks Brad.

Operator: This concludes as we speak’s question-and-answer session. I might now like to show the decision again to Peter Shaw, VP of Investor Relations for any further or closing remarks.

Peter Shaw: Thank you. And so on behalf of the administration group, I wish to thank everybody for becoming a member of us this morning. If there are additional questions, please do not hesitate to achieve out to anyone on the Investor Relations group and we’ll be pleased to reply your questions. And with that, thanks very a lot and have a terrific day.

Operator: This concludes as we speak’s name. Thank you on your participation and it’s possible you’ll now disconnect.

This article was generated with the assist of AI and reviewed by an editor. For extra info see our T&C.

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