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Earnings name: Camden Property Trust eyes growth amid market transition

2024.02.02 23:42


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Camden Property Trust (NYSE: NYSE:) supplied buyers with a complete overview of its monetary well being and market technique throughout its Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. The firm reported the profitable closure of over $1.2 billion in refinancing and gross sales transactions and projected a 1-2% income growth for 2023, with expectations to take care of an analogous fee in 2024.

Despite anticipating a transitional 12 months within the house market, Camden is optimistic concerning the demand for multifamily housing, pushed by robust job growth and low single-family residence stock. The firm’s core funds from operations (FFO) per share for 2023 stood at $1.73, exceeding their steering, with a projected vary of $6.59 to $6.89 for 2024.

Key Takeaways

  • Camden Property Trust accomplished over $1.2 billion in refinancing and gross sales, together with the sale of Camden Martinique for $232 million.
  • The firm anticipates a transition 12 months in 2024, with house market share anticipated to double from 20% to 40% between 2024 and 2026.
  • Revenue growth for 2023 and 2024 is predicted to be between 1-2%, with some markets doubtlessly underperforming.
  • Core FFO per share for 2023 was $1.73, surpassing steering, with 2024 core FFO per share anticipated to vary from $6.59 to $6.89.
  • Camden accomplished development on a number of properties and issued $500 million of 3-year senior unsecured notes at a hard and fast coupon of 5.85%.

Company Outlook

  • Camden predicts a doubling of the house market share within the subsequent two years.
  • Top markets for 2024 embody San Diego, Southeast Florida, and Washington, D.C.
  • Occupancy is predicted to lower barely as a result of property inclinations and company accruals, with flat occupancy projected for 2024.
  • A 1.4% hire growth is anticipated for 2024, influenced by provide elements.

Bearish Highlights

  • Markets corresponding to Dallas and Orlando might even see decrease growth as a result of elevated provide ranges.
  • Nashville and Austin would possibly expertise flat to barely unfavourable income growth due to new provide inflow.
  • Noncore changes like freeze harm and litigation prices could have an effect on the primary quarter’s efficiency.

Bullish Highlights

  • Job growth in Camden’s markets is prone to increase multifamily housing demand.
  • Development initiatives in Charlotte are deliberate, with anticipated yields within the mid-5s to low 6s.
  • Property taxes in Texas are favorable and anticipated to rise by 2.2%.

Misses

  • Signed new leases for the fourth quarter of 2023 have been down 4.3%, whereas renewals have been up 3.9%.
  • Occupancy averaged 94.9% in the course of the fourth quarter, with a possible lower anticipated as a result of numerous elements.

Q&A Highlights

  • The firm is evaluating inventory buyback alternatives however is cautious as a result of regulatory constraints.
  • Bad debt expense is predicted to see some enchancment later within the 12 months.
  • The CapEx finances has elevated primarily for big exterior initiatives, with no related spending anticipated in 2025.

Camden Property Trust’s strategic maneuvers and monetary actions mirror a cautious but optimistic method as they navigate by way of a interval of market transition. With a transparent give attention to growth markets and a prudent acquisition technique, the corporate is positioning itself to capitalize on the anticipated improve in demand for multifamily housing.

InvestingPro Insights

Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT) has been a subject of debate amongst buyers, notably concerning its valuation and revenue expectations. With a present Market Cap of roughly $10.46B USD and a P/E Ratio standing at a excessive 46.78, the corporate is buying and selling at a big earnings a number of. This might point out investor confidence within the firm’s future growth or a market premium for its steady observe file, particularly contemplating that Camden has maintained dividend funds for a formidable 31 consecutive years.

InvestingPro Tips counsel that whereas analysts predict the corporate shall be worthwhile this 12 months, there’s an expectation for web revenue to drop. This aligns with the corporate’s personal projections of a transitional interval within the house market. Additionally, it is vital to notice that Camden’s short-term obligations exceed its liquid property, which might pose a liquidity threat within the close to time period.

For buyers on the lookout for revenue, the Dividend Yield as of the newest knowledge stands at a notable 4.14%, with a Dividend Growth of 6.38% during the last twelve months as of Q1 2023. This might be a pretty level for these targeted on regular revenue streams.

Moreover, the corporate’s shares are at present priced at 77.29% of their 52-week excessive, with an InvestingPro Fair Value estimation of $98.29 USD, which is near the analyst goal honest worth of $105 USD. This means that the inventory may be undervalued, offering a possible alternative for buyers.

For these in search of additional insights and suggestions, InvestingPro gives a wealth of extra info. With a particular New Year sale, buyers can now entry these sources at as much as a 50% low cost. To improve the deal, use coupon code “SFY24” to get an extra 10% off a 2-year InvestingPro+ subscription, or “SFY241” to get an extra 10% off a 1-year InvestingPro+ subscription. These promocodes can unlock extra InvestingPro Tips, with dozens extra listed on the platform.

Camden Property Trust’s monetary well being and market technique, as mirrored in these metrics and suggestions, counsel an organization that’s navigating by way of market transitions with a cautious but doubtlessly rewarding method for buyers.

Full transcript – Camden Property Tr (CPT) This autumn 2023:

Kim Callahan: Good morning and welcome to Camden Property Trust Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I’m Kim Callahan, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me at present are Ric Campo, Camden’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Keith Oden, Executive Vice Chairman and President; and Alex Jessett, Chief Financial Officer. Today’s occasion is being webcast by way of the Investors part of our web site at camdenliving.com and a replay shall be out there this afternoon. We can have a slide presentation along with our ready remarks and people slides may also be out there on our web site later at present or by e-mail upon request. [Operator Instructions] Please word, this occasion is being recorded. Before we start our ready remarks, I want to advise everybody that we’ll be making forward-looking statements primarily based on our present expectations and beliefs. These statements usually are not ensures of future efficiency and contain dangers and uncertainties that would trigger precise outcomes to vary materially from expectations. Further details about these dangers could be present in our filings with the SEC and we encourage you to overview them. Any forward-looking statements made on at present’s name signify administration’s present opinions and the corporate assumes no obligation to replace or complement these statements due to subsequent occasions. As a reminder, Camden’s full fourth quarter 2023 earnings launch is obtainable within the Investors part of our web site at camdenliving.com and it consists of reconciliations to non-GAAP monetary measures which shall be mentioned on this name. We want to respect everybody’s time and full our name inside one hour, so please restrict your preliminary query to 1, then rejoin the queue in case you have extra gadgets to debate. If we’re unable to talk with everybody within the queue at present, we’d be blissful to reply to extra questions by telephone or e mail after the decision concludes. At this time, I’ll flip the decision over to Ric Campo.

Ric Campo: The theme for our on-hold music at present was associates and teammates serving to one another. The verse from the theme tune of the favored TV present “Friends” sums it up properly. I’ll be there for you when the rain begins to pour. I’ll be there for you want I’ve been there earlier than. I’ll be there for you since you’ve been there for me, too. One of Camden’s 9 core values is group gamers. We acknowledge our staff who dwell Camden’s values by way of our annual ACE Awards program. Each 12 months, Camden staff nominate their friends and colleagues for an ACE award. And from our 1,700 staff are chosen to be nationwide ACE winners. Those 14 people are acknowledged and celebrated at our nationwide management assembly. Being chosen as a nationwide ACE Award winner is the very best honor that Camden associates can obtain and represents the very best of the very best from Team Camden. I need to introduce you to one in all our nationwide ACE Award winners for 2023, Santos Castelo. [Video being played] It’s of us like Santos who make it sure that it doesn’t matter what’s happening on this planet, Camden will all the time honor our 9 values to make sure that we enhance the lives of our teammates, our residents and our stakeholders, one expertise at a time. Our finance, accounting, authorized and actual property funding groups have had a busy year-end and starting of 2024, closing over $1.2 billion in refinancing the gross sales transactions. We started 2024 with a robust stability sheet and are ready for the growth alternatives as they might develop this 12 months. Our operations and help groups completed the 12 months robust and are positioned to outperform our native submarket opponents once more in 2024. 2024 needs to be a transition 12 months from peak new house deliveries to a extra constructive market after provide is absorbed. 2025 begins are projected to plummet to a low within the $200,000 vary as a result of tough market situations. 2024 house absorption is projected to be somewhat over 400,000 models nationwide with over 200,000 models absorbed in Camden’s markets. 2024 house demand shall be pushed extra by demographics and migration dynamics than conventional job growth. Apartments will take market share from the single-family market. Beginning in 2011 and thru 2019, residences had a median market share of 20% of home maintain formations. Apartments are projected to double that market share to 40% between 2024 and 2026. This is as a result of, first, residence affordability is at 20-year low with rising residence costs and present rates of interest and no indicators of the strain easing anytime quickly, even with charges persevering with to fall, in migration to Camden markets continues to develop. More younger adults are within the workforce with stable job growth and wage growth; 30% of the households select to dwell alone which is at an all-time excessive. Camden’s markets proceed to guide the nation in job growth. We stay up for what appears to be like to be a really fascinating 12 months. I do know that our Camden group is supplied and able to excel in 2024 by being nice associates and nice teammates. Thank you, Team Camden for all that you simply do for Camden and our residents. Keith Oden is up subsequent.

Keith Oden: Thanks, Ric. For 2023, same-property income grew by 5.1%, according to our authentic projections. Six of our markets achieved outcomes inside 50 foundation factors of their authentic finances and one other 6 outperformed their budgets. Of the remaining 3, L.A., Orange County and Atlanta, each underperformed primarily for causes associated to dangerous debt, skips and evictions and fraud. In Phoenix, the underperformance resulted from market situations moderating extra shortly than we anticipated over the course of 2023. For 2024, we anticipate identical property income to be within the vary of 0.5% to 2.5%, with the vast majority of our markets falling inside that vary. The outliers on the constructive aspect are anticipated to be Southern California markets together with Southeast Florida, whereas Orlando, Nashville and Austin, will possible underperform given outsized competitors from new provide this 12 months. Our high 6 markets ought to obtain 2024 income growth between 2% and 4% and consists of San Diego Inland Empire, Southeast Florida, Washington, D.C. Metro, L.A., Orange County, Houston and Charlotte. Our subsequent 5 markets are budgeted for income growth between 1% and a pair of% and embody Denver, Tampa, Atlanta, Raleigh and Phoenix. Our remaining 4 markets of Dallas, Orlando, Nashville and Austin, are anticipated to have income growth of plus or minus 1%. As lots of you realize, we have now a convention of assigning letter grades to forecast situations in our markets at the start of every 12 months and rating our markets usually so as of their anticipated efficiency throughout 2024. We at present grade our general portfolio as a B with a moderating outlook as in comparison with an A- with a moderating outlook final 12 months. Our full report card is included as a part of our earnings name slide deck which is included into this webcast and shall be out there on our web site after at present’s name. While job growth is predicted to average over the course of 2024, the general financial system stays wholesome and we anticipate our Sunbelt-focused market footprint will permit us to outperform the U.S. outlook. We anticipate to see continued in-migration into Camden’s markets and robust demand for residences properties in 2024, given the relative unaffordability of shopping for a single-family residence. We reviewed 2024 provide forecasts from a number of third-party knowledge suppliers and their projections vary from 230,000 to 330,000 completions throughout our 15 markets over the course of the 12 months. After analyzing the submarket places and value factors for these new deliveries, we anticipate that roughly 20% of these deliveries are between 50,000 and 70,000 new models could also be aggressive to our present portfolio. Our high 3 markets for 2024 have been the identical as our high 3 markets for income growth within the fourth quarter of 2023 and so they stay robust getting into 2024. Their growth charges are anticipated to gradual from the 5% to eight% vary they achieved in 2023 and thus have moderating outlooks. Therefore, we have ranked San Diego Inland Empire as an A, Southeast Florida as an A- and Washington, D.C. Metro as a B+. L.A., Orange County, Houston and Charlotte spherical out the highest 6 with L.A., Orange County receiving a B with an enhancing outlook and the opposite 2 rating as a B with moderating outlooks. We anticipate the advance in LA Orange County will come primarily from a discount in dangerous debt as we repopulate lots of our vacant models with residents who really pay their hire. L.A. Orange County may also see a manageable stage of provide this 12 months which must also function a profit. Our Houston portfolio had regular growth throughout 2023 and will proceed to carry out nicely in 2024. Supply stays in test and the variety of aggressive deliveries in our submarkets ought to decline over the course of the 12 months. Charlotte ranks as our quantity 6 projected market this 12 months versus quantity 5 in 2023, so it’s nonetheless an above common performer however with income growth possible nearer to 2% than the virtually 7% we reported in 2023. The mixture stage of provide coming into the Charlotte MSA shall be elevated this 12 months and we anticipate our primary competitors will fall within the uptown South End submarket which is slated to obtain 3,000 models this 12 months. Similar to Houston and Charlotte, Denver and Tampa additionally earned B scores with moderating outlooks. Denver’s income growth has been above common in our portfolio for the previous 3 years and to proceed that development in 2024. Deliveries will tick up barely this 12 months, primarily in 1 or 2 of our submarkets however needs to be met with stable demand. Tampa has been our #1 market during the last 3 years, averaging over 11% annual income growth. The growth will gradual to the low single-digit vary this 12 months. New provide appears to be like to be manageable in most of our submarkets there however we’re actively monitoring our 2 not too long ago constructed high-rise property within the St. Petersburg submarket for competitors with the brand new product being delivered there. In Atlanta, our present evaluation of market situations charges of B- with an enhancing outlook. Similar to L.A., Orange County, we anticipate to see a discount in dangerous debt throughout 2024 which ought to increase our income growth from the lower than 1% achieved in 2023. On the brand new provide entrance, the Atlanta MSA will proceed so as to add new models in 2024 and we anticipate essentially the most competitors from deliveries in our Midtown submarket. Next up are Raleigh and Phoenix, each receiving grades of B- however with steady outlooks. In the combination, these markets carried out just below our portfolio common in 2023 for income growth and they need to stay in that space for 2024 with 1% to 2% growth. And as soon as once more, whereas each of those markets face elevated ranges of provide versus historic averages, we anticipate that solely a handful of property in every market will face head-to-head competitors from 2024 deliveries. Dallas would additionally fee as a B- with a steady outlook however its income growth could fall just below the 1% mark this 12 months. While Dallas nonetheless ranks as one of many nation’s high metros for job growth and in migration, the outsized stage of provide set to ship this 12 months will hold pricing energy and hire growth muted there. Orlando delivered outsized ranges of income growth for the previous few years however it has dropped from above common to beneath common in current quarters, thus incomes a C+ grade with a moderating outlook. The financial system in Orlando stay robust however above common completion slated for 2024, will possible lead to minimal income growth for the market this 12 months. Our final 2 markets, Nashville and Austin, constantly ranked as high markets for multifamily development and scheduled supply of latest residences in current quarters, whereas in addition they rank as 2 of the highest U.S. markets for job growth and migration high quality of life, et cetera. The sheer quantity of latest provide coming in 2024 will possible lead to flat to barely unfavourable income growth for each of these markets. And we consider 30% to 40% of the brand new provide in these markets could compete straight with Camden’s property. We have signed each markets a steady outlook for the rest of 2024 and with scores of C and C-, respectively, given present market situations. Now a number of extra particulars on our 2023 working leads to January 2024 traits. Rental charges for the fourth quarter had signed new leases down 4.3% and renewals up 3.9% for a blended fee of unfavourable 0.6%. Our preliminary January outcomes point out a slight enchancment in signed new leases and moderation in renewals for a barely higher blended fee on our January signed leases so far. February and March renewal presents have been despatched out with a median improve of 4.1%. Occupancy averaged 94.9% in the course of the fourth quarter ’23. In January 2024 occupancy is trending in the identical vary. And as anticipated, move-outs to buy properties remained very low at 10.4% for the fourth quarter of ’23, 10.7% for the total 12 months of ’23. January move-outs will possible stay in the identical vary. I’ll now flip the decision over to Alex Jessett, Camden’s Chief Financial Officer.

Alex Jessett: Thanks, Keith. Before I transfer on to our monetary outcomes and steering, a quick replace on our current actual property and capital markets exercise. During the fourth quarter of 2023, we accomplished development on Camden NoDA, a 387-unit, $108 million group in Charlotte which is now roughly 90% leased. We started leasing at Camden Wood Mill Creek, a 189 unit, $75 million single-family rental group situated within the Woodlands, Texas and we continued leasing at Camden Durham, a 420-unit, $145 million new growth in Durham, North Carolina. Additionally, on the finish of the quarter, we bought Camden Martinique, a 714 unit 38-year-old group in Costa Mesa, California, for $232 million. The group was bought at an approximate 5.5% yield after administration charges and precise CapEx and generated a ten.6% unleveraged return over our virtually 26-year maintain interval. Additionally, in the course of the quarter, we issued $500 million of 3-year senior unsecured notes with a hard and fast coupon of 5.85%. We subsequently swapped all the quantity of the providing to floating fee at SOFR plus 112 foundation factors. After quarter finish, we issued $400 million of 10-year senior unsecured notes with a hard and fast coupon of 4.9% and a yield of 4.94%. Also, after quarter finish, we pay as you go our $300 million floating fee time period mortgage. And on January 16, we repaid at maturity a $250 million 4.4% senior unsecured word. In conjunction with the time period mortgage prepayment, we are going to acknowledge a noncore cost of roughly $900,000 and related to unamortized mortgage prices. As of at present, roughly 85% of our debt is fastened fee. We have virtually full availability underneath our $1.2 billion credit score facility and we have now lower than $300 million of maturities over the subsequent 24 months with solely $138 million left to fund underneath our present growth pipeline. Our stability sheet stays robust with web debt-to-EBITDA at 4x. Turning to monetary outcomes. Last night time, we reported core funds from operations for the fourth quarter of 2023 of $190.5 million or $1.73 per share, $0.01 forward of the midpoint of our prior quarterly steering. This outperformance resulted virtually solely from lower-than-anticipated ranges of dangerous debt. As beforehand reported, in September, we skilled an uncommon spike in dangerous debt which we forecasted to increase by way of the fourth quarter. Fortunately, September seems to have been an anomaly and dangerous debt for the fourth quarter averaged 1.1% as in comparison with our forecast of 1.5%. Additionally, we delivered same-store occupancy for the fourth quarter of 94.9%, 10 foundation factors forward of our forecast. For 2023, we delivered same-store income growth of 5.1%, expense growth of 6.7% and NOI growth of 4.3%. You can confer with Page 24 of our fourth quarter supplemental bundle for particulars on the important thing assumptions driving our 2024 monetary outlook. We anticipate our 2024 core FFO per share to be within the vary of $6.59 to $6.89 and with the midpoint of $6.74 representing an $0.08 per share lower from our 2023 outcomes. This lower is anticipated to consequence primarily from an approximate $0.07 per share improve in core FFO associated to the growth in working revenue from our growth, non-same-store and retail communities ensuing primarily from the incremental contribution from our 7 growth communities in lease-up throughout both 2023 and/or 2024. A $0.07 per share lower in curiosity expense attributable to roughly $185 million of decrease common anticipated debt balances excellent in 2024 as in comparison with 2023, partially offset by decrease ranges of capitalized curiosity as we full sure growth communities. The decrease debt balances consequence from the beforehand talked about Camden Martinique disposition and an extra $115 million disposition of an Atlanta group scheduled for subsequent week. For 2024, we’re anticipating $41 million on common excellent underneath our line of credit score with a median fee of roughly 5.5% and at a median fee roughly [indiscernible] unsecured bond. We usually are not anticipating any extra unsecured bond choices in 2024. A $0.035 per share improve in charge and asset administration and curiosity and different revenue, ensuing from elevated third-party normal contracting charges and curiosity earned on money balances. We are assuming common money balances of $60 million in 2024, incomes roughly 4.6%. This $0.175 cumulative improve in anticipated core FFO per share is solely offset by an approximate $0.155 per share lower in core FFO from the $293 million of 2023 accomplished inclinations and an approximate $0.06 per share lower from the disposition anticipated subsequent week and an approximate $0.04 per share lower, ensuing primarily from the mix of upper normal and administrative and property administration bills. At the midpoint, we predict flat same-store web working revenue with income growth of 1.5% and expense growth of 4.5%. Each 1% improve in same-store NOI is roughly $0.085 per share in core FFO. Our 2024 same-store income growth midpoint of 1.5% relies upon an approximate 0.5% incomes on the finish of 2023 and at an successfully flat loss to lease. We additionally anticipate a 1.4% improve in market rental charges from December 31, 2023, to December 31, 2024, recognizing half of this annual market rental fee improve, mixed with our embedded growth leads to a budgeted 1.2% improve in 2024 web market rents. We are assuming that dangerous debt continues to average by way of the 12 months, reaching 1% by the fourth quarter and averaging 1.1% for the total 12 months, a 30 foundation level enchancment over 2023. When combining our 1.2% improve in web market rents, with our 30 foundation level decline in dangerous debt, we’re budgeting 2024 rental revenue growth of 1.5%. Rental revenue encompasses 89% of our complete rental revenues. The remaining 11% of our property revenues is primarily comprised of utility rebilling and different charges and is anticipated to develop at an analogous stage to our rental revenue as a result of decreased pricing energy and elevated regulatory constraints. Our 2024 same-store expense growth midpoint of 4.5% outcomes primarily from anticipated above-average insurance coverage will increase. Insurance represents 7.5% of our complete working bills and is anticipated to extend by 18% as insurance coverage suppliers proceed to face giant international losses and ensuing monetary pressures. Our remaining working bills are anticipated to develop at roughly 3.4% within the mixture, together with property taxes which represented roughly 36% of our complete working bills and are projected to extend roughly 3% in 2024. Excluding our deliberate disposition subsequent week, the midpoint of our steering vary assumes $250 million of acquisitions, offset by an extra $250 million of inclinations with no web accretion or dilution from these matching transactions. Page 24 of our supplemental bundle additionally particulars different assumptions for 2024, together with the plan for as much as $300 million of growth begins within the second half of the 12 months and roughly $175 million of complete 2024 growth spend. We anticipate core FFO per share for the primary quarter of 2024 to be throughout the vary of $1.65 to $1.69. The midpoint of $1.67 represents a $0.06 per share lower from the fourth quarter of 2023 which is primarily the results of an approximate $0.035 per share sequential decline in same-store NOI, pushed by an approximate $0.04 per share improve in sequential same-store bills ensuing from the timing of quarterly tax refunds, the reset of our annual property tax accrual on January 1 of every 12 months and different expense will increase, primarily attributable to typical seasonal traits, together with the timing of on-site wage will increase. This is partially offset by a $0.005 per share improve in sequential same-store income, primarily from increased ranges of charge and different revenue. We are anticipating occupancy will stay successfully flat quarter-to-quarter. An approximate $0.035 per share lower attributable to our December 28, 2023, $232 million disposition of Camden Martinique, an approximate $0.01 per share lower attributable to our deliberate $115 million disposition subsequent week and an approximate $0.05 per share lower ensuing primarily from the timing of assorted different company accruals. This $0.085 per share cumulative lower in quarterly sequential core FFO is partially offset by an approximate $0.015 per share lower in curiosity expense ensuing from the decrease debt balances because of the disposition proceeds and an approximate $0.01 per share improve in core FFO, associated to extra curiosity revenue earned on money balances. Anticipated noncore changes for the primary quarter embody a mixed $0.03 from freeze harm associated to winter storm, Jerry, the beforehand talked about cost related to unamortized mortgage prices from our time period mortgage and prices related to litigation issues. At this time, we are going to open the decision as much as questions.

Operator: We will now start the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And the primary query will come from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

Michael Goldsmith: Can you simply discuss somewhat bit concerning the macro assumptions that you’ve constructed into your steering at present, we’re seeing 353,000 jobs added. So how a lot elasticity is there in your steering that might be influenced by the job market. And then alongside these strains additionally, are there proceed — are you able to present an replace somewhat bit on the migration journeys to the Sunbelt as a part of your response.

Ric Campo: Sure. So — the job quantity at present and the revision for December was positively, I believe, the market pre-treating it a blowout, proper? And it actually is; and our general financial backdrop for what we expect demand goes to be in our markets is unquestionably not primarily based on blowout numbers. Clearly, job we thought and I believe a lot of the market consider that job growth has slowed dramatically in 2024. So clearly, extra job growth helps us. When you have a look at the place the job growth is, it is in our markets. If you have a look at Texas and Florida have led the nation in job growth put up COVID and we’ll proceed to do this. So it clearly is superb for us and it is not — that form of drop growth is unquestionably not baked into our numbers. When you concentrate on what’s actually driving demand in 2024 and 2025, we do not assume it was an elevated job growth driving that demand. What’s been occurring is multifamily has been taking market share from single household as I mentioned in my at first of the decision, we have gone from a historic common of 20% multifamily demand in complete family formations to 40% and that is pushed by every little thing we all know, proper, that single-family market is absolutely onerous for any person to purchase a home at present. I imply we had, I believe, a complete of 10.7 of individuals moved out to purchase homes at Camden in 2023. And so when you concentrate on these dynamics and there is different broader dynamics, too which is 30% of Americans at present live alone and that advantages residences. And that quantity is manner up from the previous timeframe. So the blowout job numbers clearly assist our numbers. And if we proceed at this at this stage, will probably be fairly fascinating. As far as in-migration, Alex, you may discuss in migration. When you have a look at the demand aspect, for instance, we anticipate over 200,000 models of demand in 2024 and that is on a 220-unit provide, proper, plus or minus, or completions. And so it is fairly balanced once you get right down to it. But finally, once you look out, for instance, their projection is exhibiting 380,000 complete demand for the U.S. from 400,000 in ’24, 380 in ’25. So demand is being pushed by completely different drivers at present, not simply the outdated adage of 1 house for each 5 jobs. It simply would not work anymore due to the in-migration. The different factor additionally is not only in-migration from different cities. It’s really a complete immigration as a result of immigration was manner down throughout COVID and now it is again to extra regular and people immigrants are likely to are likely to — and that is authorized immigration, I’m not a pining on board or something like that however it’s — in order that’s helped us too. Alex, you would possibly hit the top migration a bit.

Alex Jessett: Yes, completely. So we proceed to have actually robust in migration to our house. So for those who have a look at those that have moved from non-Sunbelt to Sunbelt for us, within the fourth quarter, it was about 17.5% of our complete move-ins. By the best way, that is pretty according to what we have seen over the previous couple of years. So that is still actually robust. And 1 of the opposite issues that we observe is that we observe Google (NASDAQ:) searches from folks in New York or folks in California on the lookout for residences to hire in our markets. And simply to present you a very — that is fascinating to me, New York searches for Texas residences have been up 72% within the fourth quarter of ’23 as in comparison with the fourth quarter of ’22. California searches for Texas residences have been up 52% within the fourth quarter of ’23 to the — as in comparison with the fourth quarter of ’22. So nonetheless very robust demand for folk popping out of New York, out of California to our markets.

Operator: Next query will come from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

Steve Sakwa: But I assume I had a query on what you are implicit blended new and renewal form of leasing spreads have been and perhaps how that tied into your occupancy assumptions. I assume what I’m actually asking is are you guys actually fixing extra for occupancy right here and can surrender on the brand new fee aspect? Or are you keen to let occupancy drift decrease and form of hold pricing firmer?

Alex Jessett: Yes. So we’re assuming that occupancy goes to be flat in 2024 as in comparison with 2023 and that quantity is 95.3%. And we’re driving in the direction of that quantity. When we have a look at new lease and renewals and the commerce out for the total 12 months. What we’re anticipating is new leases to be down 0.6%, renewals up 3.6% for a blended improve of 1.2%. And that’s going to form of comply with what you’d assume be typical seasonal patterns.

Operator: The subsequent query will come from Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets.

Brad Heffern: Can you simply discuss how your assumptions for hire growth in ’24 in comparison with how you’d information in a traditional 12 months with out all these provide headwinds? I believe you mentioned 1.4% market hire growth. So the place would you usually begin the 12 months? And I assume — why is that the suitable differential to that given the provision backdrop?

Alex Jessett: Yes. We would sometimes — I imply, clearly, yearly is completely different and yearly has its personal distinctive parameters round provide and demand in our enterprise, the everyday 12 months is 3%. And you may see that we’re at 1.4% and that is clearly pushed by the provision elements are there. As we have talked about on the ready remarks, we expect demand remains to be extremely robust however we’re cognitive of the provision points and that is why you are arising with a 1.4% for the total 12 months.

Keith Oden: So Brad, simply put it in context on the problem of demand and the job quantity that got here out at present, we used 2 main knowledge suppliers. They had very completely different views about employment growth for 2024 and we mainly ended up taking the midpoint the two of them as a result of they each had their very own story that they may inform round it. But the midpoint of our 2 knowledge suppliers forecast for complete employment growth throughout Camden’s markets for 2024 was about $300,000. And we simply bought that within the month of January. So it is — I believe we have tried to construct in some realism across the numbers and the forecast. But clearly, our forecast didn’t anticipate something like having all the job growth projected for the 12 months within the first month so.

Operator: The subsequent query will come from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt: I used to be simply questioning, I do know you guys do not supply concessions throughout the stabilized portfolio however simply questioning what sort of has modified simply on concessions so far as what you are seeing throughout these markets which can be most uncovered to a number of the new provide?

Ric Campo: It’s very typical of what we have seen. The hardest markets like can be Austin, Texas and Nashville. And there — the concessions are important, wherever from 2 to three months free. Generally, service provider builders do not transcend 3 months free however you are seeing that in essentially the most provide constraint or provide markets. When you get to extra markets that are not as pressured, then in comparison with these 2, you are wherever from 1 month to six weeks to 2 months max. And that is form of what we’re seeing in a number of the different markets.

Operator: The subsequent query will come from Rich Anderson with Wedbush.

Rich Anderson: So I ponder if we might discuss somewhat bit concerning the longer-term view. Your Avalon and EQR mentioned, nicely, peak provide in ’24 means peak income declines in 2025 or in principle, nobody is aware of for positive. Do you’re feeling like that’s at the least within the wheelhouse of a risk in that what we’re seeing at present by way of your outlook which I believe most individuals assume appears to be like higher than expectations getting into, might really form of see a downdraft subsequent 12 months as the total lot of the provision is absorbed into your portfolio?

Ric Campo: Based on a number of the suppliers we use, they present an uptick in ’25 and our market just isn’t a downtick. And if you concentrate on the provision dialogue that I had a minute in the past, the provision challenge or the provision we all know concerning the demand is the true subject, proper? So once you have a look at the demand projections for this 12 months, it is — they’re nationwide, over 400,000 models. And then the projection for the next 12 months, even with a gradual — very low job growth mark, is one thing like 380,000 models of demand. So the demand drivers, apparently sufficient, are simply not typical demand drivers in multifamily. It’s all the time been about job growth, proper? And at present, it is about taking market share from single households, single-family market as a result of it is so the wrong way up on a price to hire perspective and lack of stock within the resale market. And what’s occurred — what’s actually fascinating is that’s that if you wish to purchase a brand new home in America at present, you just about have to purchase or if you wish to purchase a home, you just about have to purchase a brand new home. And once you have a look at the often, when rates of interest go up this excessive, the single-family homebuilders all crash and lay folks off of. They had a few 5- or 6-month hiatus after which went again to onerous core constructing homes as a result of there was no stock to be for single-family patrons to purchase and that is persevering with. So I believe that these demand drivers which can be really — which can be driving this actually constructive outlook for demand in 2024 are going to be in place in 2025 as nicely. And particularly in case you have a backdrop of job growth that appears prefer it’s — it is — I’m undecided you may say January goes to be a print each month on this 12 months. But clearly, the job market is lots stronger than folks thought it may be and that would assist with the absorption and in 2025 as nicely. So I have never seen very many projections that present 2025 the place rents are taking place. They purchased them. Most of the numbers that we see from of us are bottoming in 2024 after which they begin an uptick in 2025 since you’ve absorbed lots — so many models in 2024.

Operator: Next query will come from Eric Wolfe with Citi.

Eric Wolfe: So right me if that is fallacious however I assume that you simply needed to achieve the lease at present. So I used to be simply questioning primarily based in your historical past, if there is a sure achieve to lease stage the place you are now not in a position to cross by way of like 3.5% to 4% kind renewal will increase. And then for that 4.1% renewals you despatched out for February and March. I used to be questioning what the speed form of obtain fee to consider can be on that?

Alex Jessett: So initially, we’re really not at a achieve to lease. We have — we’re mainly a flat — no loss lease or achieve to lease. When you concentrate on renewals, we’re anticipating the fourth — excuse me, the primary quarter that we will get at proper round 3.9%. So pretty near what we’re sending out after which the opposite query which I believe is form of actually across the differential between new leases and renewals. When we have a look at our math, the differential for the total 12 months precise percentage-wise between any person with a signed a brand new lease for a renewal is absolutely solely about 1.5% differential. So it is not that important and never one thing that we expect is problematic.

Operator: The subsequent query will come from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho.

Haendel St. Juste: Good morning. Just hoping you may discuss growth for a second right here. I see you’ve got as much as $300 million of latest begins, together with the information. So curious once we might see these begin, how they’re penciling at present from a yield or IRR perspective wherein markets we are able to see these in?

Ric Campo: The developments that we have now in that mannequin or within the mannequin are in Charlotte and their suburban 3-story walk-up kind product. And we might begin these relying on how the 12 months unfolds within the again half of the 12 months, in order that we might ship into ’26 and ’27. And the yields are wherever from within the mid-5s to low 6s by way of stabilized yields. And once you have a look at IRRs, it is actually form of sophisticated to determine an IRR at present given what are you going to anticipate cap charges to be. But finally, we expect there’s going to be a reasonably constructive market in ’26 and ’27 when these properties ship. We have one other — various them within the pipeline as nicely in different markets. But these 2 as a result of they’re fairly easy and so they are available at a value level that is very reasonably priced relative to city high-rise in the identical market is fairly engaging.

Haendel St. Juste: Okay. And then perhaps on the true property tax information. You additionally, I believe you talked about, Alex, 3.5%, I believe it was embedded in your same-store expense information there. Slightly bit decrease than I believe loads of us have been considering and definitely given what we have seen not too long ago I’m curious if we’re form of previous the height headwinds there for actual property taxes and promoting into a brand new norm right here or perhaps you are maybe benefiting from one thing else that is much less apparent to us.

Alex Jessett: Yes, completely. So the property tax quantity that we have now in our steering is 3%. And if you concentrate on it, it is actually the identical quantity that we skilled in 2023. And so plainly we’re reverting again to the long-term imply which is in that form of 3% to three.5% vary. Really, the large driver that you’ve is Texas. And as we mentioned in prior earnings calls, Texas could be very favorable on the subject of property taxes, particularly with a brand new invoice that was handed final 12 months. And so we’re receiving the good thing about that for a second 12 months in a row. And we really assume that our complete property taxes in Texas are going to be up about 2.2% which is mostly a fairly low quantity and that makes up about 40% of all of our property taxes. So that is the first driver there.

Operator: The subsequent query will come from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler.

Alexander Goldfarb: Just need to return. I believe Ric or Keith, I believe at the start of the decision, you talked about the expectation for nationally 400,000 unit absorption this 12 months, 200,000 of which might be within the Camden markets. But I believe they’re like near 700,000, 650,000 models anticipated to be delivered this 12 months. So simply needed to higher perceive the feedback round absorption. And then additionally as a part of that, are you — all of us perceive what is going on on with the provision however — are you suggesting that the share of housing going to residences versus single-family will clearly proceed to maintain. And due to this fact, versus traditionally the place jobs can be extra of the issue. It’s actually extra the family formation that is actually the issue now into subsequent 12 months.

Ric Campo: It sounds such as you answered the query. Yes, that is what is going on on. I imply we’re — with out superb job growth, we’re nonetheless in a position to produce loads of demand and it is all a perform of various demand drivers and jobs, proper? And at present, for those who have a look at the share that we’re — that residences are taking from the family formations and also you have a look at it traditionally, it is double what it has been for a very long time. And in order that’s — it is virtually the identical as what’s occurring within the single-family on the market market is their market share has doubled at the least and perhaps even tripled from the norm due to the dearth of stock of single-family properties to purchase due to the lock-in impact. So you’ve got an fascinating scenario right here the place we’re persevering with to profit from the excessive value of homeownership and persevering with to profit from in migration, each worldwide immigration and migration from different cities. So sure, there’s loads of models underneath development. We know that. But the demand, it appears to be if these demand numbers are near being proper, goes to create if you’ll, a delicate touchdown for the provision. And that is form of the — that is the mannequin that we put forth there.

Alexander Goldfarb: Are you adjusting that the 400 million versus the 770 million.

Ric Campo: No. Well, 670 just isn’t what the absorption goes to be, Keith, you’ve got these absorption numbers we mentioned at present.

Keith Oden: In Camden’s markets, sure, the completions that we have now that we’re modeling are 230,000 residences throughout Camden’s platform in 2024. And that quantity drops to about 200 in 2025. So simply to verify we’re speaking apples and apples versus nationwide numbers. It’s 230 in Camden’s markets.

Ric Campo: Yes. And that 600 coming within the pipeline would not all get delivered in 2024. Part of that’s into 2025 as nicely.

Operator: Next query will come from [indiscernible] with Wells Fargo.

Unidentified Analyst: I simply needed to get your ideas on timing of fundamentals. So simply enthusiastic about your steering for brand spanking new leases, barely unfavourable however they have been a lot worse in January on each efficient and signed. And then for those who have a look at your present occupancy versus your projected occupancy, it looks like an uptick. So do you assume that when you concentrate on the primary half versus the again half, do you assume it will get higher into the again half and that is the place the pickup is? Or do you assume that January was — or January is form of an anomaly and the numbers are simply going to look higher off the bat?

Alex Jessett: So the very first thing I might inform you is for those who have a look at our signed new leases in January — excuse me, our signed blended leases in January are higher than are efficient which is a number one indicator of enhancements. What we’re anticipating that we will have blended commerce outs within the first quarter of about 0.2%. So a slight uptick from the place we’re at present however we’re anticipating that occupancy goes to stay flat within the first quarter at 95%. And then the advance comes all year long. As primary, we have now higher comps that are very useful for us. And then we additionally form of hit our seasonal robust durations as we transfer from the second quarter into the third quarter.

Unidentified Analyst: And you then assume it stays robust in 4Q otherwise you assume [indiscernible]

Alex Jessett: Yes, we have got a 4Q blended commerce out of 1.6% and occupancy of about 95.2. So I believe that form of follows the traditional seasonal patterns that you’d see.

Operator: The subsequent query will come from Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley.

Adam Kramer: I simply needed to ask about exterior growth and acquisitions particularly given the place the stability sheet is at — to EBITDA at 4x at quarter finish, I imply what would form of be wanted to occur for them to be upside to the acquisition quantity? And you form of step into that underlevered stability sheet?

Keith Oden: So the first factor that must occur on acquisitions is we have now to see higher getting into yields, though there’s been loads of transaction volumes are manner down. There’s nonetheless an enormous bid-ask unfold between patrons and sellers. They’re simply — we simply do not see — we do not see worth proper now within the acquisition market versus different makes use of of capital. Now that is to not say that in some unspecified time in the future, that does not change. I imply, clearly, there’s with all of this new provide that is been constructed and primarily by the service provider construct group. At some level, they should transfer previous the present crop of their growth pipeline and form of recharge their organizations. They are within the enterprise of constructing residences. And so that they’re all — I believe all of them have manner an excessive amount of — far more than they’d usually care to have by way of their growth pipeline and holdings. So in some unspecified time in the future, there’s going to be a rationalization not simply within the rental provide market between provide demand. But within the transaction market between a product that should discover a everlasting residence, not within the service provider construct group and folks which can be keen to offer that and have the capital to do it. So we’re within the latter group, we simply do not assume we’re there but. And we simply assume being affected person proper now’s the suitable technique for the acquisition market.

Ric Campo: Analog [ph] simply accomplished this week and we had, after all, our big group on the market and that is form of the beginning of the form of acquisition disposition dance. And folks have been — in comparison with final 12 months — final 12 months, I might categorize as in the course of the headlights. And this 12 months is rather less in the course of the headlights and extra cautious optimism as a result of charges have come down some. And that is conserving a number of the strain off of individuals having to promote. But there’s nonetheless only a large bid as unfold between individuals who need to purchase versus individuals who need to promote. And so the query shall be how do the working fundamentals look going ahead? And what — how do folks really feel concerning the world and what occurs to charges. And I believe individuals are extra optimistic now that they’ll enter the acquisition market as a result of — final 12 months was, I do not need to make a mistake what if the Fed does all these items now we’re on a trajectory, it appears to be like prefer to decrease charges sometime. And due to this fact, it is simpler to form of create a mannequin that works financially at present with a falling fee situation within the subsequent 2 or 3 years. But we’re not there but for positive by way of that inflection level.

Operator: The subsequent query will come from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

John Kim: I needed to ask about inclinations. I assume, this month, you are going to be promoting Camden Vantage in Atlanta. Why this specific asset just isn’t outdated. It’s in one in all your core Sunbelt markets. We calculated the cap fee north of seven%, so I did not see like pricing was that nice. But going ahead, the place else do you see this determination exercise, will or not it’s in California or targeted on extra of your older merchandise?

Alex Jessett: So I’ll take the cap fee query first after which I believe perhaps Keith can opine on the disposition selection. But for Camden Vantage, we’re exhibiting this at utilizing precise CapEx and a administration charge at a 5.75% cap fee. Tax adjusted 5.65% cap fee and an AFFO yield earlier than administration charges of 6.09%. So positively a decrease yield than you are calculating.

Keith Oden: Yes. And on the dispose aspect, I imply we hold a listing of and have ongoing conversations with our working teams about if there have been to be a sale out of one in all your markets or submarkets which property can be in that dialog. And Vantage virtually all the time got here up as 1 that might be on the record of administration’s record of property that they’d relatively another person handle. So I’ll simply go away it at that.

John Kim: Can I simply comply with up what was the CapEx consumption on the on Vantage?

Alex Jessett: Yes. The CapEx on that one, I believe it is most likely round $1,800 a door however I’ll must get again to you the precise.

Operator: Next query will come from Rob Stevenson with Janney.

Rob Stevenson: Just on the inclinations, given how low your leverage sizeable free money stream and the minimal growth spending remaining. How aggressive are you keen to be and promote extra property with out corresponding acquisitions? Because it looks like given Keith’s acquisition market commentary that acquisitions at greatest can be again half finish loaded and will not come in any respect if the remainder would not come.

Keith Oden: Yes. So our steering assumes that we mainly match inclinations and acquisitions. So we might look to be form of web 0 on the 12 months. And the reply on the acquisitions actually inclinations form of will get again to once we discover worth and we consider that there is a actual alternative on acquisitions, then we might these clearly can be property that we needed to — newer property that we need to add to the portfolio and we’re all the time keen to enhance the portfolio by promoting a corresponding variety of greenback quantity of property that to fund that. So our working assumption and what’s mirrored within the steering is, is that we’re keen to be fairly aggressive once we see worth in acquisitions however not earlier than then.

Rob Stevenson: Okay, that is useful. And then, only a level of readability. The mid-5 to low 6s that you simply guys talked about on growth yields on a stabilized foundation. Was that for the two Charlotte ones that you simply would possibly begin this 12 months? Or was that to stabilize yields on the 4 properties within the present growth pipeline?

Ric Campo: Actually, the numbers are the identical. The present growth pipeline, we have now some within the form of the low to mid-6s and a few within the form of low 5s. The new developments in Charlotte, we’re nonetheless engaged on what the mannequin appears to be like like however we would not begin them in the event that they have been in that zone.

Rob Stevenson: Okay. And are you seeing any actual aid on supplies or labor on the event aspect, given the form of pull again in different areas of growth? Or is it nonetheless competitively priced versus the final couple of years?

Ric Campo: Not but. We have not seen an enormous — any large drops in value. What’s occurred is the prices have not been going up as a lot. I imply for those who return a few years, we have been having like 1% to 1.5% inflation each single month. And so at present, that is somewhat — you do not have that a part of the equation however there hasn’t been a fabric shift in pricing. And that is 1 of the challenges you’ve got each service provider builder and Camden has is that if prices aren’t coming down however rents are flat and it is a very aggressive market, you simply — it is actually onerous to justify new development. That’s why the begins are projected to fall to low 200,000s in 2025. It’s simply {that a} math would not actually work nicely when rents are flat and development prices have not fallen.

Operator: The subsequent query will come from Wes Golladay with Baird.

Wes Golladay: Question on the event supply forecast. Do you assume this 12 months goes to be extra in danger to delays versus prior years? And are you seeing any of the builders going bust but?

Ric Campo: We have not seen anyone going bust but. And I believe that banks are positively, we hear loads of anecdotal details about banks working very nicely with their debtors at present. The banks are way more — they’re nicely capitalized and the — it is fairly frequent data that within the subsequent couple of years, the financial drop — backdrop of working fundamentals and decrease rates of interest are all going to assist — it should assist get a few of these offers by way of that system. So by way of that perspective, I do not assume that you will have any — there’s not going to be any main bankruptcies for main defaults with service provider builders they may be confused to promote however that does not imply there — I believe there’s nonetheless fairness of their offers, most of them anyway. In phrases of delays, it is nonetheless onerous to get a challenge to be delivered once you anticipate it to as a result of so many individuals left the labor for us. We do not have extra labor provide. And so there’s nonetheless a good quantity of threat in deliveries and when the supply goes to return. And so that would really be helpful to the backdrop of our provide and demand equation. If begins do plummet or I believe they may however let’s begin once you really begin seeing increasingly more of that, if we delay a number of the ’24 provide into ’25 and a number of the ’25 into ’26, that might be lots smoother softer touchdown for these markets given the demand aspect.

Operator: The subsequent query will come from Anthony Paolone with JPMorgan.

Anthony Paolone: Yes, thanks. So it sounds just like the stress is within the system simply is not there to create loads of alternatives proper now. So questioning what it would take so that you can use some capability to purchase again inventory?

Keith Oden: Yes. We’ve — it is one thing that we have a look at consistently by way of the chance set for allocation of capital. And previously, we’ve not been bashful about shopping for again inventory when it made sense to take action. It’s all the time somewhat little bit of a problem due to the foundations and the trimmings round shopping for inventory in measurement and doing it within the home windows which can be out there. But sure, it is one thing we have talked about. We’ve mentioned and that we might pursue when the — once we assume the chance is smart.

Operator: The subsequent query will come from Omotayo Okusanya with Deutsche Bank.

Omotayo Okusanya: Yes. Just ideas on dangerous debt expense. The forecast was $24 million, 1.1% of complete revenues would not actually change that a lot from the place you have been in 4Q. So simply questioning why we’re not seeing incremental enchancment form of put up all of the moratoriums and enhancements on the fraud administration aspect.

Alex Jessett: So I believe we’re form of in unprecedented instances proper now the place we’re attempting to determine what’s the new regular. And so at this level, what we’re assuming is that the primary and second quarter look lots just like the fourth quarter. And then we have now some slight enhancements as we go into the latter a part of the 12 months. Clearly, if we return to 50 foundation factors which is what our historic norm had been earlier than all of this, then we bought some potential upside form of working by way of the mathematics. But at this level, we’re simply being affected person and seeing the way it performs out.

Omotayo Okusanya: Fair sufficient.

Operator: The subsequent query will come from Robin Lu with Green Street.

Robin Lu: Alex, only a query for you. There was a step up in CapEx finances for the 12 months, notably in nonrecurring CapEx. Can you present extra element as to what’s driving the excessive spend?

Alex Jessett: Yes, completely. So we have got a few issues which can be working by way of the nonrecurring aspect. And they’re primarily targeted round a few communities we have now which have some giant exterior initiatives and foundational initiatives that we have to do. So that is what you’ve got bought going by way of the mathematics.

Robin Lu: Do you anticipate that to increase to different properties in like ’25 or ’26 as nicely.

Alex Jessett: No, I do not assume so. We undergo and we have a look at all of our communities, actually do a deep dive yearly, as you’d anticipate. And so these have been a few communities which were recognized — as I mentioned, they did have the foundational and exterior challenges that we knew we wanted to repair. And so our intention is to get it carried out in 2024 and I would not anticipate to see a quantity like this in ’25.

Operator: This concludes our question-and-answer session. I want to flip the convention again over to Mr. Ric Campo for any closing remarks. Please go forward, sir.

Ric Campo: Great. Well, thanks for being on the decision at present. We respect the chance to undergo what 2024 appears to be like prefer to be an fascinating 12 months. So we’ll see you within the convention circle in circuit right here within the subsequent month or two. So, take care and thanks.

Operator: The convention has now concluded. Thank you for attending at present’s presentation. You could now disconnect.

This article was generated with the help of AI and reviewed by an editor. For extra info see our T&C.

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