Cryptocurrency Opinion and Analysis

Bernstein analysts expect $200K Bitcoin price by 2025 due to spot BTC ETF flows

2024.06.20 13:51

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein predict that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach nearly $200,000 by the end of next year, following strong inflows into spot U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since their approval in January. This prediction is an upward revision from their previous target of $150,000.

The analysts based this prediction on the assumption that spot Bitcoin ETFs may represent around 7% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply by the end of 2025.

“We see Bitcoin ETFs as on the cusp of approvals at major wirehouses/large private bank platforms in Q3/Q4,” Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote in a note to clients.

“The institutional basis trade looks like the ‘Trojan Horse’ for adoption, and these investors are in the process of evaluating ‘net long’ positions.”

The analysts said that currently, nearly 80% of the spot Bitcoin ETF flows come from self-directed retail investors through broker platforms, while institutional integrations with wirehouses are still in their infancy.

“Around $15 billion of net new flows have been brought in by the ETFs combined,” the analyst wrote. “We expect Bitcoin ETFs to be equivalent to ~7% of Bitcoin in circulation by 2025 and ~15% of Bitcoin supply by 2033.”

“We expect spot Bitcoin ETFs to touch ~$190B AuM by ‘25E market peak and $3Tn by 2033.”

Bernstein analysts expect $200K Bitcoin price by 2025 due to spot BTC ETF flowsSpot Bitcoin ETF projections. Source: Bernstein

Bernstein analysts also suggest that BTC price has entered a new bull market cycle driven by the recent Bitcoin halving event. They expect new catalysts to emerge that will drive demand for the asset.

“We believe Bitcoin is in a new bull cycle. The ‘halving’ presents a unique circumstance, where natural Bitcoin sell-pressure from miners declines by half (or even more, as they inventory more in anticipation), while new catalysts for Bitcoin demand arise, leading to exponential price moves.”

Related: Bitcoin ETFs legitimized the crypto industry for investors

Apart from capital flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, the pioneer cryptocurrency has seen significant institutional funds pouring in.

MicroStrategy, the largest corporate BTC holder, continues its aggressive BTC accumulation strategy, acquiring an additional 11,931 BTC for approximately $786.0 million, according to founder and former CEO Michael Saylor.

Bernstein analysts expect $200K Bitcoin price by 2025 due to spot BTC ETF flowsSource: Michael Saylor

The business intelligence firm now holds 226,331 BTC, approximately 1.15% of Bitcoin’s total global supply.

MicroStrategy earlier announced its plans to offer $800 million in aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2032, the proceeds of which will boost its Bitcoin holdings.

If it continues to accumulate Bitcoin over the next few years, Bernstein predicts that the company’s holdings could grow to represent 1.5% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply by the end of 2025.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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